The beginning of this week in Kazakhstan was marked by yet another wave of rumors about preparations for the early parliamentary elections. More specifically, about the readiness of the current composition of the Majilis to opt for voluntary dissolution, "to enable the new composition of the parliament to adopt laws, which are necessary for the current stage of development of the state and society." These reports have been recorded in the media more than once since the spring of 2015, but now the reports of the media and brief comments of the deputies themselves give rise to the idea that at the beginning of 2016, a new balance of political forces may form in Kazakhstan's parliament.
More precisely, we can already assume that there won't be many fundamental differences – Nur Otan will maintain the role of the pillar of parliamentary institutions and the dominant party. The chances are good that on the left flank, the Communist People's Party of Kazakhstan will also feel pretty confident. But other potential candidates for seats in the new parliament are not so obvious.
Most likely, instead of a three-party Majilis, a new construction will appear, with five or even six participants – 'Auyl', at least, as well as the Party of Patriots, knowingly carried out a hasty rebranding, and now they are able claim their share of the parliamentary pie on a par with Ak Zhol.
However, in this case, the amount of political influence will not change dramatically from the change of seats. Unlike neighboring Kyrgyzstan, where parliamentary elections are a real confrontation between key groups of financial and political power, in Kazakhstan, since the days of the old Ak Zhol and 'Asar', there is no real confrontation by means of political parties. Strict centralization of the party space clearly delineates the boundaries of what is possible for each of the potential players.
Another question is the person. Here, the field for individual maneuver is much broader. It is no coincidence that the restart of Dariga Nazarbayeva's political career was carried out through the parliamentary rostrum. The current results of this restarting are obvious. And the election campaign will be a good test of strength for the management of Nur Otan.
And finally, why now? Most likely, the anxious expectations of 2016 pushed Ak Orda into such a decision. Now everything is complicated, but it could be worse. The current safety margin is enough to carry out a technological campaign (as always) as quickly as possible.
However, everything may change, and the current assurances of Mazhilis deputies, such as "we are ready for voluntary dissolution," may not be popular. This is a characteristic of Kazakh politics.
