The dollar’s rate is higher than 63 rubles on the Moscow stock exchange against the background of the collapse of prices for the "black gold". On August 3rd futures of Brent oil lost almost 4% of their price on the London Stock Exchange. The cost of a barrel fell to $50.14. Quotes of oil reference marks fell to their lowest level for six months. According to Western experts, this has happened against the background of Iran's promises to increase production quickly after the lifting of sanctions, as well as new signs of a weakening of the Chinese economy.
The Director of the Energy Development Fund, Sergey Pikin, considers that the Iranian factor is really overrated. ‘‘Even if we remove the dynamics and the schedule, which was in the signed agreement between Iran and the six mediators, there was the following algorithm: firstly, Iran should prove that it fulfills these agreements, and only then will the commission of the IAEA decide whether the agreement can really come into force, and Iran is fulfilling its obligations. And only after this decision about lifting the sanctions will be made at the level of the United States and the EU… Someone says that Iran is beginning to produce large amounts of oil, but even if we take the maximum – 30-70 million barrels. Such volumes won’t be sold in one day. In any case, they will have a certain trade agreement with the consumers of Iranian oil. An increase in the capacity of new production will be in the second half of next year, not earlier. Moreover, it will be very consistent, not dramatic,’’ the expert said.
According to him, the factor of Iran and others aren’t so significant. ‘‘In recent days, many companies announced that they are reducing their innovative programs for new projects. And the main argument wasn’t tied to profitability, or potential unprofitability, but in order to maintain its dividend policy for shareholders. That is the big difference between the approaches of Western corporations and Russian companies. According to current estimates, about 46 projects estimated at 200 million dollars won’t be launched in the next few years. This means that by the moment demand reaches supply (the end of 2016 - beginning of 2017) it will be provided access to some balance of the demand and the supply.
According to the expert’s opinion, the prerequisites of the underproduction of oil can appear only after 4-5 years.
The fact that the majority of oil producers are now at the peak of production now plays an important role. According to Pikin, on the one hand it is negative for the international market, because it leads to oversupply, on the other hand it is also a big plus, because it is difficult to pass from peak production to higher volumes. ‘‘Russia and Saudi Arabia are at the peak of production, Iraq and Libya intend to intensify their production, and so on. The US is like a litmus test for the traders dealing in oil futures and they actually define its direction. A lot was said about the fact that Saudi Arabia and other countries want to lower prices in order to drive out their competitors. But the oil trade and oil quotations are two very different things. Because neither Saudi Arabia nor Russia, nor the United States determine oil futures, but a specific pool of banks, investment companies, which have traded on the futures of oil. That is why oil quotations depend on their expectations, as well as a sense of reality,’’ the expert explained.
