Worsening Russian-US relations make experts attentively follow the presidential election campaign in the US, in which the new head of the White House will be elected this November. The US election campaign, which usually lasts for 18 months, is divided into several stages, according to experts: nomination and registration of candidates; primaries; the validating of candidates at party sessions; and elections.
On Monday, the primary party elections of the Democratic and Republican Parties took place in Iowa. At the moment the most powerful participants of the future race have been determined in both parties. The former Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, defeated Senator Bernie Sanders with a slight advantage in the Democratic Party. Conservative Ted Cruz became the leading candidate of the Republican Party, leaving behind billionaire Donald Trump and Senator Marco Rubio.
Edward Lozansky, Academician of the Russian Academy of Social Sciences, President of the American University in Moscow, thinks that the result is predictable. “In Iowa, during his campaign, Cruz quoted the Bible all the time. Trump also wanted to do so, but not being a boarding Christian, he made a mistake. When he quoted the Bible, he said just a few inaccurate words, and for these people it is very important, and they decided that he was, in fact, not their person,” the expert points out, stressing that it is a great psychological victory for Cruz.
However, Iowa is a test of strength only. New Hampshire is next. According to Lozansky, Trump will win in New Hampshire, as “this state is more liberal and less religious."
Predicting the developments of Russian-American relations, in case of a victory of one of these candidates, the expert states: “Trump has promised a lot. Politicians often make promises, but do not carry them out. But Trump is not a politician, he is a businessman, and in business, after all, when people make promises, they are going to keep them. So, of course, for US-Russian relations Trump would probably have been preferable.
However, Cruz (in contrast to the third-placed candidate, Rubio) is not pushed strongly toward some anti-Russian rhetoric. If Cruz wins, nothing wrong will happen then [for relations between Moscow and Washington]. Maybe he will invite Trump to be Vice President.”
Speaking about the Democratic Party, the expert believes that Sanders played a totally unexpected hand: “No one expected that in America a 74-year old socialist could sustain such a campaign. At the same time, this is a temporary success. Probably, Sanders will still show some good results in New Hampshire, but after that everything will go down for him. Hillary [Clinton] has tremendous advantages in South Carolina. The only thing that can stop Hillary now is the Criminal Code. There are a lot of various cases in which she is involved. The most serious of them is her private email server. The State Department announced that at least 22 letters were found containing sensitive information from her private server. The idea is that this is a prelude to criminal charges. Whether they will be instituted or not is hard to say, it is big politics, this is decided by the director of the FBI.”
