The Russian Ministry of Finance establishes an oil price forecast of $50 per barrel in the draft of 2016 budget, the Minister of Finance, Anton Siluanov, says.
Meanwhile, some experts believe that the price of oil on the world market should be higher.
The Director General of the Energy Strategy Institute, a member of the RF CCI Committee on Energy Strategy and Energy Industry, Professor Vitaly Bushuyev believes after a rise there is always a fall, then a certain period is maintained, and the prices begin to grow again, "the level of 45-50 dollars that we have today, it's the bottom of the oil price’s fall. Because after that, companies no longer invest in the development of oil production, and this will inevitably lead to the fact that there will be no necessary production for maintaining the global balance in a year or year and a half. And the prices, of course, will grow in order to be able again to find investments for the development of the oil sector. "
However, according to the expert, "The prices will not exceed 100-110 dollars per barrel, because that already affects the economy, that is the top level of the marginal price. The most optimal price is 60-80 dollars. It was, it is and it will be in terms of the budget of all countries, exporters and importers. "
Talking about how fast the prices will rise to $ 40-50 to 60-80, Bushuyev said: "for 2015 will be somewhere on the level of 58-60 dollars per barrel, in 2016 we will reach the level of 70-75 dollars per barrel, in 2018 we will reach the level close to $90, but then again there will be a deep fall in 2019.. "
There is no country in the world, no cartel agreement, neither Russia, nor OPEC nor America can influence the situation. That is why, according to the expert, ‘’we must learn to live in these conditions along with a trend of increased market prices. We need to create strategic reserves, it is necessary to build a policy to ensure that in times of minimum prices we are not throwing additional volumes of oil at the world market, as Russia does today. That is a loss, roughly speaking, because Russia cannot succeed in compensating for lost income through massive volumes of oil production. Neither can Russia affect these prices. Nevertheless, it is necessary to create strategic reserves. I think that the creation of these reserves will allow us to influence these prices in the range of the fluctuations, not avoiding those laws, long fluctuations that were and will be."
