Turkish "Peace Spring": goals and consequences

This week Ankara launched operation Peace Spring in northern Syria against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and ISIS, which is banned in Turkey and several countries, including Russia. World contries had different reaction to this operation. For example, head of the Pentagon, Mark Esper, urged Turkey to cease hostilities, as they could threaten US troops in the region, while Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan expressed solidarity and full support for Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in the matter of Ankara’s actions in Syria.

Amur Hajiyev, director of the Center for Modern Turkey Studies, researcher of the Turkish sector of the Oriental Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that reasons for this operation are multi-level in nature: “With noticeable decline in popularity of the ruling party, Erdogan needs to regain his positions and nullify efforts of those who broke away from his team, including such heavyweights as Abdullah Gul, Ahmet Davutoglu, Ali Babacan and others. In preparation for this operation Erdogan even enlisted support of the opposition. For example, Kemal Kilicdaroglu supported this operation. It was important for Erdogan to prove himself as a strong leader who acts decisively despite threats from the United States, EU and NATO. He achieved this goal."

As for situation in Syria and the region, Amur Hajiyev suggested that Ankara plans to get rid any possibility of creation of Kurdish state near its borders: “Turkey is also interested in preventing the revival of ISIS. However, what should it do if the militants who are currently captured by YPG will be freed. On the other hand, Turkish operation reportedly forced Kurds to stop their operations against ISIS terrorists. Ankara is also interested in returning Syrian refugees to their home. Whether it’s possible to create necessary conditions for that is a difficult question. There is a chance that operation may lead to split in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and perhaps those who breakaway from the SDF alliance may finally sit at the negotiating table with Damascus. This should also meet Turkish interests, not to mention Russia's."

Expert stressed that operation is carried out on the eve of the first meeting of the Constitutional Committee in Geneva, which is scheduled for October 30: “I don't think this operation is aimed at disrupting upcoming Geneva talks. Moreover, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Syrian constitutional process won't suffer in any way, since pro-Kurdish forces don't participate in this process. I prefer to view this operation as a step taken after parties agreed on composition of the Constitutional Committee. In other words, first there was an agreement, and then operation began."

Deputy Director of the Institute for Prediction and Settlement of Political Conflicts, Alexander Kuznetsov, speaking about regional security, noted that elimination of the US from this conflict is an important factor: “It wasn't a complete surprise, because in December of last year President Trump announced withdrawal of US troops from Syria, but this step was carried out very slowly, at a creeping pace. However, the last reaction of the US President was very remarkable in its own way. He announced withdrawal of the US troops on Twitter and wrote in detail about his opinion of these events. That's why we should take a closer look at Trump's statements.

He basically wrote that what's happening in Syria is no longer America's business. He also said that current American administration inherited endless and ridiculous wars that lead to depletion of American resources from its predecessor, the Obama administration. He described these wars, which actually began during the Bush administration, as the biggest mistake in US history. In other words, Trump called military intervention in the processes in the Middle East the biggest mistake in American history.

After complaining that America spent $80 billion in Syria alone without any visible results, he announced that he was withdrawing American soldiers from there. The next statement basically said: “We leave Turkey, Russia and Europe, Kurds and Syria to deal with current problems.” This suggests that Washington is wrapping its activities in the Middle East. Considering the September 14 attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, Washington is moving away from military methods of its policy in the Middle East and the United States will no longer fight even for its closest allies, just like they didn't fight for Saudi Arabia. It's unlikely that the United States will now fight for Israel, even if there's a significant threat to its security."

According to Kuznetsov, all of this indicates that the Middle East is moving away from Washington’s foreign policy priorities: "This can be partly explained by energy factor. The US is successfully increasing production of shale oil. It has almost achieved the same levels as Saudi Arabia. In the near future, the United States can become a major exporter. That's why the factor of energy dependence on the Middle East is no longer valid. Current administration doesn't care about details of what will happen in the Middle East."