After the US withdrew from the Iran deal, the expediency of continuing relations with Washington causes doubts in Tehran. Second Deputy of the Parliament of Iran Ali Motahari said today: "If the way used by the US presidential administration becomes a tradition, then it will be impossible to trust international relations, because the exit of Americans from the JCPOA was a moral rather than economic or political issue for the world community."
Senior Lecturer of the Department of Political Science at the Higher School of Economics of the National Research University, Grigory Lukyanov, says that the JCPOA problem is not limited to Iran: "The actions of other countries are dictated not by Iran's actions, but by their own interests. The US saw the JCPOA as one of the tools for solving "Iran's big problem," linking it with Iran's politics in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, Lebanon, Pakistan and Afghanistan. In fact, it was about Iran's complete refusal from foreign policy, from participation in processes outside of Iran."
Substantiating his point, the expert noted that when referring to Iran's actions in Afghanistan, they don't just say that Tehran supported Taliban's actions, but also try to influence public opinion, discredit Iran, saying that it communicates, contacts and supports such a destructive structure as Taliban.
"The influence of Iran is much more serious. There are political parties in the Afghan parliament directly focusing on Iran. These are the parties, public associations based on the support of the Shiite minority in Afghanistan, which are important within a politically unstable system like the Afghan one, where every political force struggles for support for a long time already. And the voice of the Shia minority associated with Iran is very significant," Lukyanov said.
Speaking about US policy, he focused on the possibility of changing the balance of power there before the elections: "This is not just an American event: the US bureaucratic system is not a closed political system, external players participate actively in it, an external agenda and external actors may influence the outcome of elections. In many respects Trump's victory was made possible by a certain lobbying activity of foreign groups, including those associated with an inalienable participant in the Middle East policy - Israel and Saudi Arabia. The are interested in preserving and improving positions of the Republican Party, and they will fight for it. Trump fueled their interest not only by their decision on the nuclear deal, but also by the decision to transfer the US Embassy to Jerusalem not in conjunction with the proclamation of the Declaration of Independence of Israel, which was celebrated on April 19 this year, but in conjunction with the Nakba Day (Nakba Day is celebrated by Palestinian Arabs on May 15, the day after the date on which the State of Israel was founded. This day for the Palestinians is connected with the expulsion of thousands of people from their native places and with the lost Arab-Israeli wars - VK). Trump wanted to challenge the Palestinian community, as well as Iran, which has expressed its solidarity with the Palestinian people and Palestinian political organizations throughout these years, and not only with Hamas, but also with the Palestine Liberation Organization, because Nakba Day is simultaneously celebrated by all political organizations of Palestine."
Proceeding from this, the expert comes to the conclusion that Trump demonstrates that his policy in the Middle East and the policy of the Conservatives, who somehow consolidate around him, in the long term will be connected with reliance on the traditional US allies in the region - Israel and Saudi Arabia : "The Israeli lobby and the Saudi lobby will be inspired by Trump's actions, which are not unsystematic. I'm not inclined to think of him as an elephant in a china shop that does not understand what he is doing. He is a businessman, who has made a bet on a certain business project and doing his best to make this project work. All this may affect the results of the US elections. Perhaps, Trump will not get a second term. But he will leave a trail in history by not just waging wars (wars are not always a profitable business project), but also drastically changing and completing what they could not do before him. "
