Moscow continues to work on the diplomatic direction in Syria after the beginning of the air strikes on the positions of the terrorist organization ‘Islamic State’ by the Russian air forces. Yesterday the country appealed to London to help in the establishment of contact with the Free Syrian Army. At a meeting with the British Foreign Office political director, Russian Ambassador Alexander Yakovenko said that this will contribute to the coordination of efforts in the fight against ISIS, as well as the ability to include the FSA in the political process.
It is known that the FSA is not as strong as it was before and many of its members have joined other groups. But now Saudi Arabia is going to support it. According to the BBC, Riyadh intends to supply weapons, not only for the FSA, but also for the ‘Southern Front’ and the ‘Army of Conquest’, regarding this, Islamic State and Al-Nusra Dzhebhat won’t get the Saudi weapons.
The complex political situation around Syria does not seem such to a member of the Russian Academy of Missile and Artillery Sciences, Konstantin Sivkov.
According to him, the US intention is to regain control of the groups which are united by ISIS, because they have lost this control largely on many factors. The second task is to overthrow the legitimate Syrian government with further occupation of the country. Therefore, any joint action impossible.
At the same time, according to Sivkov, the United States and its allies clearly understand that the beginning of the fire contact between the Russian and American air or some other forces that are there in Syria may become a serious US-Russian military conflict between the two nuclear powers: "There are no suicides in the United States or in other countries either, so they will try to avoid this conflict as long as possible. Therefore contacts through the Ministry of Defense and the Pentagon are being established, interaction between our group and the American aviation group is being organized in the skies of Syria, but in what way? The most effective way is a delineation of zones of influence."
As for the military balance of power in Syria, then, according to Sivkova, the number of militants "IG" other radical groups estimated at 100-120 thousand, and the number of Syrian army more than 150 thousand. People, plus the "Hamas" (about 10-15 thousand .), plus Kurdish militias (20-30 thousand). Against this background the activities of the three with a small dozen Russian aircraft, of which only 22 drums, clearly looks disparate scale armed confrontation. "To these attacks could have a significant and rapid impact on the course of hostilities, this group would have to be perhaps five times more. About how Americans" - believes Sivkov.
As for the American ships, then, according to the expert, "at the airbase Inzherlik (the US military base used by the US Air Force and Turkey -‘VK ‘) operates the US wing with 72 aircraft. The issue of delivery of the carrier there even from the United States, through the Persian Gulf zone, takes about a month. If they are based as a part of the US Fifth Fleet in the Indian Ocean, then it can take even two weeks.The carriers have aircraft of various classes, I do not take helicopters in account, only the airplanes, about 75 of them. Plus helicopters, but helicopters are not accounted for, they are for the self-defense of the ship. Of these, 60 are striking, these are the F/A 18C and D Super Hornet aircraft, it is as good as the Russian SU-24 in its characteristics."
However, according to the expert, ‘’the US does not make attempts to defeat ISIS, the country is aiming to bring it under control. Therefore, the strikes are carried out on command posts where, according to US intelligence, there are commanders who, shall we say, are not biased, who have an independent policy or are engaged in other centers in Syria. The US strike at the system of technical support at the first place which provides funding to ISIS. That means, they claim that they will strike the tank farms, why? Because as long as ISIS has a system of self-sufficiency, it can pursue an independent policy. As soon as it loses this, it becomes instantly dependent and, respectively, controlled."