“I have no idea,” was the answer by the US President to the journalists’ question of who could win the primaries in New Hampshire, where the Democratic and Republican parties are holding preliminary elections which will help to choose the nominees for the elections in November. Russian political scientist, diplomat, the Rector of the Diplomatic Academy of Russia Yevgeny Bazhanov, answered the same question by Vestnik Kavkaza in a similar manner. However, unlike Obama, he set several arguments in favor of the unpredictability of the primaries' results.
“It is difficult to make a forecast. The Republicans do not have a very strong figure, who from the beginning would be considered as the leader and whom a significant part of the population will support. There is such a hard choice, who will win at the end, it is not known whether this person could become a figure that will be the leader for all the Americans in all the states,” Bazhanov said.
However, he believes that the Democrats have a leader, this is Hillary Clinton: “She is a very powerful person, the whole country knows her; she has a lot of money for her administrative resources, she is cooperating with the current government, which openly, of course, and this is allowed, supports her. The fact that she is a woman is a plus. The Americans like to have firsts in everything. They elected an African American, now it is also interesting for many to elect a woman, though they are not going to be the first in this. We all know that England was headed by a woman long ago, and Germany is now headed by a woman, even the South Korean president is a woman. This, I believe, is also a factor in favor of her.”
The diplomat says that the fact that the Democrats have been in power for eight years is a disadvantage for Clinton: “In America, it is accepted that after 8 years of the ruling of one party the Americans still want something new. Although the economic situation is not bad, and the only weak point of Obama is the fact that he is accused of not being able to provide security to the Americans. On the territory of USA there is a threat from extremists, especially Muslim extremists, and the Middle East cannot be secure for the American interests, American security. This is used to attack him, and, of course, will be used to attack Clinton.”
Moreover, Bazhanov thinks that the internal matter of Clinton using her personal electronic device for secret information is still on the agenda. But the diplomat is sure that “this is not a problem that can grow to such an extent that Clinton will lose her chances. It’s a well known practice during election campaigns, when they seek some faults.”
The diplomat stated that after Obama spent four years and was running for the second time, it was clear that he would win: “He was President, and things were going well, many blacks and other minorities supported him, and his enemy was not so strong. But now the situation is more complicated.”
