Recent events in Ukraine are making experts speak about a big confrontation between President Petro Poroshenko and representatives of radical groups acting in the country.
However, the Deputy Director of the Center for Ukrainian and Belorusian Studies at Lomonosov Moscow State University, Bogdan Bezpalko, thinks that the radical forces don't have enough influence to overthrow the authorities: “Even if they use all the volunteer battalions, these battalions usually consist of 50-100 people. Even if we assume that they are all well armed with firearms, and even rocket launchers, in any case they wouldn’t be able to resist the army units.”
Speaking about the Euromaidan events, when radicals managed to overthrow President Victor Yanukovich, the expert said: “The Euromaidan would have been impossible if it hadn’t been used as a technology, if large amounts of money hadn’t been invested in it. The Euromaidan wouldn’t have taken place without logistics, medical care for the militants etc. It was not a spontaneous rally. Right Sector and all the other Ukrainian volunteer battalions can try to overthrow Poroshenko, but in my opinion they won’t manage to change the power without external support from those countries that are interested in destabilizing the situation in the Eurasian space as a whole.”
Bezpalko sees no alternative for some political forces in Ukraine now: “The Party of Regions was transformed into a more amorphous political bloc, and the Communist Party is now de facto banned. They also compromised themselves due to a number actions and statements, including unfriendliness towards Russia. So if a change in the mass opinion of the citizens of Ukraine happens, I don’t understand how they will vote. Ukraine is in a zone of political turbulence. Maybe tomorrow or the day after tomorrow the hryvna could collapse. Maybe on the contrary, Ukraine will receive some large tranche and it will be announced on TV, and the politicians can strengthen their positions within Ukrainian society. Certainly, they will be more aggressive regarding Donbas. They are now in an intermediate position: on the one hand they are pressed by the European politicians and Russia in order to fulfill the agreements signed in Minsk, on the other hand a number of foreign players are not interested in fulfillment of the Minsk agreements, even in the form they have been signed. Because it would mean making gradual steps towards peace, and some politicians don’t like that. Accordingly, the stronger impact on the Ukrainian elite will determine the policy."
