Today the dollar rose to 67 rubles, the euro is up to 75 rubles. Experts say that the ruble overcame the minus level against the background of an increase in the oil price. A failed attempt to fix above the psychologically significant level of $50 a barrel for Brent and lowering of the index below 49 dollars increased the rates of major reserve currencies.
The Head of the Center for Economic Research at the Institute of Globalization and Social Movements, Vasili Koltashev, says that the corridor of fluctuations in oil prices has been destroyed: ‘’There was a corridor of 50 to 65 dollars a barrel in the first half of the year. And now we have the matter of a new fluctuation corridor. It is likely to be formed in the amount of 35-45 dollars a barrel.’’
Answering the question of how long it could take, the expert said: ‘‘Quite a serious economic crisis is expected in China. It has overcome the stock-market stage. Now the Chinese government is struggling against the crisis spreading to the banking system. Because the next step will be industry. Industrial slowdown in China may pull the price down, and even break the corridor of fluctuations, which now seems to be not so favorable for Russia. But it is a better variant than a further fall in oil prices.’’
‘‘Proceeding from the fact that China greatly restrains the development of the crisis in its economy, both in stock, and in the banking sector, and in industry, it will find ways to overcome the torpedoing of its economy by other countries, which have the ability to substitute imports and reduce trade with China. We have reduced it by a quarter in the first half of this year. In my opinion, despite this fact, 90 rubles to the dollar is quite an expected result by the end of 2015,’’ Koltashev considers.
According to him, ‘‘We have been trained to see only one side of the situation. The ruble and oil are equal in their vibrations. If oil prices fall the ruble also falls. If oil prices rise the ruble becomes stronger. In reality there are our own very strong domestic economic factors today, i.e. the decline in the Russian domestic market, the decline in real estate sales, car sales, overall reduction in business activity, reduction of any investment desires. And as a result we have a very strong outflow of capital from the Russian economy. It isn’t a very rational model to retain their investment in real estate, but real estate was a very important sector in which banks invested their money, especially in the regions. And this creates strong internal pressure on the ruble, which is enhanced at a time of falling oil prices. In principle, as it was last year we should expect that this internal pressure will play a very important role for the national currency and the economy of Russia."
However, the advisor on macroeconomics to the director general of the brokerage house 'Opening', Sergey Hestanov, considers that the weakening of the exchange rate provides stability in our financial system: ‘‘A significant number of decisions are determined by the budget process. About half of our federal budget is export rather than currency proceeds. Accordingly, the price of the main product of our export - oil - is falling so that the state could fulfill its commitments, including retirees, state employees, and those who receive social benefits. It is necessary that fewer dollars are exchanged in comparison to the sum in the budget, the amount of rubles. According to this mechanism, the oil price affects the exchange rate, which is needed so that the federal budget could tally.’’
According to the expert’s opinion, the change in the structure of the economy is the most difficult and painful thing: ‘‘Nobody in history has managed to change it fast. We have to work on it. We can predict that in the foreseeable future, in 10 years the exchange rate will depend on the oil prices which have been observed in recent years, including the value of government spending.’’
Speaking about changing of state spending from the moment of the fall in the oil price, Hestanov said: ‘‘During the first three quarters of 2014, when prices weren’t so high: 3600 rubles were divided by the cost of Brent crude and received a forecast of the ruble. Now we have another formula, and we also have another result. Under pressure from the Ministry of Finance and other ministries and departments, we had to reduce state spending. Now this figure is 3200. Now pay attention to the figures. During 9 months we managed to reduced state spending by 10%. It was extremely difficult to change this figure quickly. But we did it with very strong pressure from the executive power, which compelled the Ministry to reach a compromise among the Finance Ministry and other ministries and departments.’’
In the coming years this tendency will continue, the expert says. According to him, ‘‘a prognosis in respect of the ruble becomes a very simple task: you need to predict the price of oil. Unfortunately, it isn’t easy to predict oil prices, but this is a very indicative figure according to the assessment of the President of Kazakhstan. Our neighbor in the Customs Union made a statement recently that he gave the order to work out the budget of Kazakhstan for the price range of 30-40 dollars a barrel. Yes, this is a pessimistic prognosis, and it will be good if it doesn’t happen and the oil price will be higher. But morally we should be ready for 80-105 rubles a dollar in the case of a pessimistic scenario.’’
