Eurasian Union: directions of integration

A month ago, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin published an article in which the idea of the Eurasian Union was presented. According to him, the Eurasian Union is an integration project aimed at uniting post-Soviet republics on an economic and financial basis, as well as to provide them with a common defense system. The Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan are expected to join it. The article provoked a wide discussion both in Russia and abroad. Western experts and journalists say that's an attempt to revive the Soviet Union. During the video link between Moscow, Brussels and London experts discussed the Eurasian Union project, its prospects and way of cooperation with the European Union.

Alexey Vlasov, the editor-in-chief of the Vestnik Kavkaza news agency

The question is a hard one indeed, as the form the Eurasian union will take is not clear yet. Vladimir Putin, Alexander Lukashenko and Nursultan Nazarbayev have all commented on the idea. One may easily find out that all three politicians have almost a common view. They consider the future union a non-aggressive body established in order to help the parties cooperate in economic, humanitarian spheres and the sphere of defense. However there are some differences as well. The attitude to the project is a bit different and the motives are not clearly understood.  It's not clear, why are the Russian authorities coming up with this very idea now? Why do they pay such great attention to the Customs Union, the Common Economic Space and the Eurasian Economic Union, often simply called the Eurasian Union.

I can only present my view. I believe that, first of all, the timing can be explained by the fact that parliamentary and presidential elections are coming in Russia. The candidate that will probably win is obvious. It's Vladimir Putin. There were talks in the Kremlin that Putin will present a new program, a new idea, while running for president for the third time. As for me, I thought that it would be some kind of social project, something that would contradict Mikhail Prokhorov's platform. The political life this summer was intense, you know. Eventually they decided otherwise. Putin will run for Russia's president, presenting a new integration model for the post-Soviet republics. The Eurasian Union - what is it? First of all, it's a union of the most successful countries of the region. A union that less successful countries may join afterwards. That's not just an expert's belief, but a reality, since Kyrgyzstan announced it's going to join the Customs Union. This kind of cooperation will be useful from two points of view. On the one hand, the Russian political elite will see that Russia is becoming a center of integration. This integration will be twofold. The Customs Union will be the association of the most developed countries. Other countries will join it with the help of the common economic space project. On the other hand, these developing countries are interested in cooperation with powerful allies in order to improve their economic and political situation. The situation is similar to that in the European Union, where the countries of eastern and southern Europe seek further cooperation with their western partners. It won't be a restoration of the Soviet Union, as the Russian elite has no power to revive the body and is not actually interested in the idea itself. Still, the interest in further cooperation and integration is evident.

Fraser Cameron, the head of the Russia-EU Center, chief advisor at the European Policy Center

I cannot understand how one can call Belarus a successful state. It's a dictaorship. No one is willing to maintain relations with this country, even its closest neighbours.  Probably this project is Russia's attempt to solve its problems with China. Also, Russia is facing very acute internal problems. The presidential elections are coming and we already know who will win these polls. Russia has to solve its problems with corruption, Russia has to join the WTO and develop its economy. The Russian people are concerned about inflation, jobs and security. The Eurasian project is unimportant.

Ben Judah, an expert of the European Council

My attitude to the project, as well as general opinion, is rather skeptical. There are no great expectations, as former attempts were fruitless. This very project has been launched because of the coming presidential elections. The text of the agreement itself was not sent to the European Union or other major trading partners. It shows that either there is no common position on the union or that the transitional period will be very long. Thus there is no 'common economic space.'

Here in London we are very disappointed with the whole idea of the Eurasian Union and Russia's WTO bid. Belarus is certainly far from entering the WTO. Speaking about the prospects for the Eurasian Union, I should say that what we have now is just series of articles, rather vague in fact. Even Mr. Putin himself said that the development of the Eurasian Union will take at least 15 years.

Boris Mezhuyev, the deputy head of the 'Strategy-2020' foundation

There are two aspects of the problem. It's true that Putin running for Russian president needs some new ideology. Putin has always tried to find some consensus, he has always tried to secure the loyalty of the majority of the people. So he is trying to find some model that would unite liberal economic principles and a conservative ideology popular among the Russians. The Eurasian Union is such a model. It's a liberal construction based on the principles of free trade nad migration. These are the principles of the Victorian age in Great Britain. These are the principles of the North American integration.

On the other hand, the word itself, 'Eurasian,' may refer to some kind of identity, different from the European one. That's a very influential idea. This idea may be popular among the Russian people. Russian people feel depressed about the collapse of the giant multinational state. For the population of Central Asia it's a great opportunity to migrate to Russia and to find a job there. For Belorussian sellers it's a great opportunity to sell their products in Russia, at higher prices. It has nothing in common with the USSR, as the Soviet economy was not free. At the same time this project was launched in order to cope with the trauma left by the collapse of the USSR.

It's useless to discuss whether Russia has the right to launch such a project. Of course it has such a right. The problem is whether it will be too hard for the country, for its population, to implement these principles of free trade.  The main opponent of the Eurasian Union is Russian nationalism. We have to adopt a wise and well-balanced policy in order not to worsen the economic situation in Russia. I believe that the idea of the Eurasian Union does not contradict this kind of policy.

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