In recent years energy security has become very relevant for Europe. Today the EU and the USA support the implementation of projects for diversifying gas import sources. A great role in this process is given to the Caspian region, including Azerbaijan. Huge gas resources open new outlet markets for the region.
In the context of the rising significance of European energy security and the search for alternative gas import routes, players which are interested or uninterested in these projects became active. The European Union is becoming impatient, especially after it found missing gas from Russia. Last week Russia had to reduce gas exports to Europe due to growth of internal demand because of low temperatures. At the same time, representative of Gazprom Alexander Medvedev claimed that Ukraine is stealing Russian gas, meant for Western countries. However, the Ukrainian authorities insist they are fulfilling their duties and blame Moscow for the deficits. This mess is causing the eager desire of the EU to diversify its gas imports as soon as possible.
The EU hopes that Azerbaijan will make its decision on gas exports within two-three months, Reuters reported, citing the European commissioner on energy, Günter Oettinger. According to Oettinger, there are several pipeline projects for transportation of Azerbaijani gas in Europe. Nabucco is one of them, but not the only.
Azerbaijan is choosing a pipeline project at the moment. However, in reality it comes to the concept of Azerbaijani gas export to Europe rather than to some certain project.
Azerbaijan’s intention to sell its gas to Europe is firm. Gas, which will be extracted at the gas deposit Shah Deniz, is considered as the main source for all projects of the Southern Gas Corridor. Today Baku will consider proposals of three consortia, which were presented on October 1st, 2011. Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), Nabucco and ITGI project formulated their abilities, and the Azerbaijani side has taken time for consideration of the requests. This process should be finished by the end of the first quarter of 2012.
At the same time, Ankara puts its own conditions of direct choice of the gas route. Construction of the Azerbaijani-Turkish Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) demands reconsideration of routs and tariffs of the projects of the Southern Gas Corridor (Nabucco, TAP and ITGI), the minister of energy of Turkey Taner Yildyz said on January 26th. In the end of 2011 Azerbaijan and Turkey signed the memorandum on establishing of the consortium, which will construct the pipeline for gas export from Shah Deniz to Europe through Turkey. Construction of TANAP is necessary for export of most part of 50 billion cubic meters of gas, which Azerbaijan intends to produce by 2025. This pipeline will be the basis for the Southern Gas Corridor.
Baku’s choice of a gas consumer and a transportation route depends on economic reasons, effectiveness and prospects of gas markets, and beneficial tariffs on gas export. Competition between consumers and pipelines is profitable for the exporter. But it is not clear what path will be chosen by Baku.
Each consortium thinks it realizes the most effective project of gas export to Europe. However, in recent times Nabucco seems to be less realistic. On the one hand, Nabucco has won the support of the European Union from a political point of view. On the other hand, Nabucco proposes the biggest volume of gas transportation – 31 billion cubic meters annually. Today this characteristic of the pipeline seems to be its biggest disadvantage.
ITGI and TAP seem to be more realistic, as their capacities correlate with declared by Azerbaijan 10 billion cubic meters annually. Moreover, the cost of the projects is more favorable for the current economic situation. Nevertheless, the crisis in the euro area could prevent implementation of these projects, as Greece and Italy participate in them.
Elmira Tariverdiyeva, Baku. Exclusively to VK
