The CIS countries adapt to new rules of the game

Vestnik Kavkaza

Experts from the CIS countries have different views on peospects of integration processes in the post-Soviet area.

Rasim Agaev, an independent political analyst

Any idea of such a massive geopolitical plan – for being implemented - should be timely. At this case it is important to look at the existing international experience. The European Union has this kind of experience. We see how long Europe developed an idea of creating a big European government which could be comparable to the Soviet Union or to the United States. In this sense, we are now in a position where it is premature to put questions on the establishment of a political model for the future geopolitical space, or on the potency of the CIS in this plan, or to talk about a large economic cooperation. Why? Because the main question is who needs it? How these questions are answered by the republics of the former Soviet Union? On the one hand, we see that there is an interest due to declared opportunities in this cooperation. On the other hand, nothing is done. This is due to a very simple factor. There is frustration of the masses and of broad social groups. It came as a result of dissolution, but at the same time there are forces that are quite happy with the status quo. The elites in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus Azerbaijan, and Armenia, and everywhere: its interests are not quite the same as the interest of many groups who understand that there are not only economic and social benefits, but other welfare in this integration and in the creation of a new geopolitical union. But the elite do not like it - for many reasons: there are different situations (closed borders, conflicts, etc). Considering that the orientation of the elites does not coincide with wishes or expectations of the population. There are objective conditions that require new form of further cooperation: for example, there are the huge masses of people, which migrate from the suburbs to the center of the former Soviet Union, - these issues must be somehow resolved. There are issues related to external factor - hence the creation of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. All this requires a solution. I think that it is necessary to start with attainable things like the resolution of the problems of free trade - to remove any barriers, to create some favorable preferences, etc. It will be humanitarian and cultural cooperation, which contributes to development of ambitious goals.

Bolat Baykadamov, Director of the Parliamentarianism Institute of the National-Democratic Party Nur Otan

The Customs Union between Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia came into existence in 2010, The Eurasian Economic Community emerged in 2012, and the Eurasian Economic Union will be created in 2015. Thereby, in my view, political tendencies greatly exceed the possibilities of integration. At this Eurasian Economic Mission I am honoured to participate in the agricultural sector, and the action plan that we considered at the first meeting provides for integration in public policy and government support of agriculture, and, moreover, the harmonization of monetary and fiscal policy. Proposed approaches to the management and development of rural areas have caused some confusion, because the potential of accepted agreements is far from being fully realized. Therefore we want stricter enforcement of existing laws. We constantly say that our products and businesses do not have access to the markets of Russia and Belarus, in contrast with internal arrangements. In general, it is normal. I think that the next 2-3-5 years the most positive thing we can do - is to remove rough edges in the agreements and to adopt legislation. Secondly, in this period the economies of our countries will adapt to the new rules.

Elena Kuzmina, head of the department of economic development of the post-Soviet states of OMEPI Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the Institute of Economics of the RAS

The CIS is often compared with the EU. But the situation is completely different. First, the state is collapsed. On the contrary, the EU is heading towards a single economic and then political space. Of course, Russia is a core of cooperation, and a core of the economic interests of all the countries of the CIS, and Russia is the largest economy in the region. In the EU, it was quite different: there were and there are several equally large economies of equal states. Moreover, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union the newly-formed countries were to develop themselves. They were to become stronger politically; they had to stabilize the economy. Of course, there was no time to create a full-blown, fully-fledged economic union. There is this kind of interest in all the countries of the CIS. It is time when each country defines its priorities in politics and the economy. So it is no wonder that integration is beginning now.

One of the main foreign policy and economic priorities to date is strengthening and expanding cooperation with the countries of the former Soviet Union, the governments of the integration structures in this area. Integration processes are presented the most effectively by far, or shall we say, most widely in three countries: these are the Customs Union and emerging CES with the participation of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. But practically all CIS countries have great value for Russia. If while we are talking about entering the Eurasian Union now for some Central Asian countries, this does not negate the interests of Russia and Russia's cooperation with other countries of the former Soviet Union. Azerbaijan in that sense is one of the strategic partners of Russia. Despite the fact that we now have the most effective co-operation in the field of energy, and Russian investments, Russian companies are more represented in this sector, it does not mean that we do not have other common economic interests. First of all, we are talking about transportation projects; it is a fact that we have a very large Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia. In addition, quite a large flow of labor migrants arrives in Russia. All these issues are quite important for Russia. In addition, Russia is a member of the quartet, which deals with the resolution of political issues, in the first place - those connected with Nagorno-Karabakh. For Russia, Azerbaijan is one of the key countries in the Caucasus and in the Eurasian projects. We have fairly broad cultural ties between Russia and Azerbaijan. We have such a great ambassador to Russia, who is himself the cultural heritage of both Azerbaijan and Russia. We have a large diaspora in Moscow and a not very small Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia. There are permanent projects of cultural cooperation. In Russia, several newspapers are published in the Azerbaijani language, and since the largest diaspora is in Moscow, the largest newspaper is here. We regularly hold concerts, Days of Azerbaijani Culture in Moscow. If we talk about science, because I am a representative of science, today we are making contacts with the Azerbaijan Academy of Sciences - not only on Caspian Sea cooperation, not only on the problems associated with economic development, but also on issues related to many other branches of science. This is historical science, mathematics, and many other issues. And, of course, I should say that today it is very important that Russia and Azerbaijan effectively cooperate in Caspian issues, and Russia and Azerbaijan have a common point of view on most issues related to building relationships between the five littoral states. In addition, Azerbaijan also advocates the creation of a Caspian Sea cooperation organisation; this idea was proposed at a meeting at the highest level by Russia. I think that the prospects of our cooperation will develop very well and efficiently.