Author: VK
Speaking about the prospects of Armenia joining the Eurasian Union, experts have expressed differing views - from the fact that through the EAC Yerevan will solve many problems to the point that this kind of integration is not possible in principle. Meanwhile, most constructively minded Russian analysts are rather inclined to the first option.
According to Vladimir Lepekhin, director of the Eurasian Economic Community Institute, “the
idea of Eurasian integration has many opponents, including abroad. The Russian leadership has often said that the process of integration so far applies only to the economy, the economies of post-Soviet countries, they have historically been a single organism and therefore we are not talking about how to make this integration move into politics, some geopolitical issues. If you view the existing trend, the trade turnover, it is possible, based on these figures, to say that, yes, Armenia still has a large share of its trade with the European Union, more than 50% to 60%, and about 40% with the countries of the single economic space with the countries of the former Soviet Union. On the other hand, in this share, which is trade with the countries of the former Soviet Union, Russia's share is about 95%. That is, in any case, Russia is the main trading partner of Armenia”.
According to his forecasts, bilateral trade can increase quite significantly and economic cooperation can gain momentum for development, and this requires a shift from discussion or dialogue about prospects to real action: “Russia and Armenia can simply run several development projects, 3 or 4 large projects in Armenia with Russian capital, and the economic benefit of our cooperation will immediately become obvious. Also, we need to bear in mind, and everyone knows, that Russia and Armenia have historically been quite close culturally. From the point of view of some geopolitical issues, Armenia has always regarded Russia as a key partner and ally. We clearly understand what the problems in Armenia today are. Russia has always been on the side of Armenia, no matter what the question was - I mean diplomatic or geopolitical. Another thing is that, given the complexity of the region and of the relationships that are developing between Armenia and Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia, and so on, Russia cannot, on some questions, be firm enough to claim its pro-Armenian position. But the prospects are clear”.
Lepekhin says that “speaking about imports of Russian goods to Armenia, exports goods amounting to about more than 600 million rubles, while exports to Russia from the Armenian side are about more than 200 million. Compare this to Turkey: goods amounting to 100-120 million are imported to Armenia, but exports from Armenia to Turkey amount to only 10 million. That is, almost no Armenian goods are sold in Turkey. Turkey hampers this flow, or Armenia has nothing to supply there. A significant part of the import of the products of Armenia to the Russian Federation is agricultural products. This is true not only for Armenia. For example, Moldova's economy is supported by two things: first - a lot of people from Moldova, and also from Armenia, travel to Russia to work, and the money sent to Armenia is $10 billion; the second thing is the agricultural production economy. From my point of view, Russia is a huge market for Armenia. We know perfectly well what goods are produced in Armenia, the food industry is developing, there is wonderful ecological food there. This is a promising direction. If this direction is reinforced by joint agreements, efforts, investments, from Russia in the first place, and Russia gives the green light to Armenia in terms of exports of alcoholic beverages, meat and so on, Armenia can expect steady and rapid economic growth”.
Lepekhin mentioned three key areas of cooperation, in terms of agricultural production: alcohol market, meat production, and agro-tourism.
Speaking about the possibility of the formation of a common ideology and value system, Alexei Vlasov, editor-in-chief of VK, executive director of the Center for Political Studies "North-South", said that “the construction of a new ideology, a new value orientation, should be done not from the top down but from the bottom up. Certainly, expecting the political elites to offer a new ideology of equal importance for Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and the countries that will be included in the future in the field of integration is meaningless. Therefore, only by increasing communication between the civil societies of the countries that will participate in the Eurasian space may we reach new motives, new value systems for our development. Why do we talk of the Russian language in the South Caucasus and Central Asia so often, not only in Armenia? Because it is a universal means of communication. This is the first principle, which still keeps us in the general socio-cultural and humanitarian field. We calmly deal with you, we understand each other, and some aspects related to our views and ideological position are also formed from our common past, from the fact that we are literally and figuratively speaking the same language. This is so. Therefore, no matter how we argue, no matter what we discuss, we still understand each other".
According to Vlasov, “communication must be carried out not only between prime ministers and presidents, but also representatives of the educational, cultural, expert and scientific fields. We need a format that would allow us to hold these repeated meetings and make such exchanges, adjusting positions on a permanent basis, as I said, at the level of human, social, cultural and expert communications. There is a format of the Club "Eurasian Eight." This is one of the formats, let's see, maybe it will be interesting. But as I said, the formation of a new worldview is not only reading the works by Vernadsky or Gumilev (some of our colleagues are addicted to it). From my point of view, I stress once again the principled position that, in addition to the general history, in addition to the holiday on May 9, the day of the Great Victory, we should face the future and should form the new generation, which does not have the experience of the Soviet period, like the older and middle generation in Russia and countries of the South Caucasus; for them, first of all, for you we have to create new motivations, new value systems. If together we will solve this problem, the question of whether anyone can stop the Eurasian project will disappear by itself. If the project has broad public support, it is strong, stable and sustainable. Through our constant communication we will form the very basis of social support of the Eurasian project”.
