By Vestnik Kavkaza
The outgoing year was remembered by a number of important developments in the economic life of Russia which took place against the backdrop of a slowing economy. RBC experts included the following ones in the five main events:
1. Trade relations sharpened mainly with fraternal states: we struggled against Ukraine for candy and gas, and against Belarus – for "Minsk prisoner" Vladislav Baumgertner, who was the main victim of the potash scandal.
2 . Russian authorities have taken key decisions on the long-overdue pension reform.
3 . For a number of oil companies this year was the quite successful, because it was in 2013 that a package of laws liberalizing the export of LNG was adopted .
4 . Among the key decisions of this year, experts have mentioned the initiative to open the National Welfare Fund allocating money from the "Kudrin piggy bank" to mega-projects like the development of the Trans-Siberian line or construction of another ring around the capital.
5 . Last year was unlucky for Russian banks, especially those which were damaged by the “cleansing" machine of the Central Bank, the head of which is Elvira Nabiullina .
Meanwhile, according to the deputy director of the Center for Applied Research and Consulting of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Yevgeny Skorikov, central banks apply an adaptive policy. What is this adaptability? "If you look at other macroeconomic indicators - wages household demand, it turns out that the U.S. Economy, the economy of demand, is not growing. Our central bank is adaptive, it does not lead the rate to any benchmark. It is just adapting. On the one hand , it should increase the liquidity of the banking system, on the other hand, the central bank has to juggle between our strengthening or weakening the ruble and to help the real economy. This is the search for the golden mean. The Central Bank does not directly dictate the rate Accordingly, the focus should be on the real economy", Skorikov said.
According to him, "if we see in March and April a real growth in the U.S. economy, the economy of demand growth of the European economy, which is also an economy of demand (the Russian economy is an economy of supply), then back again they will need our resources - oil, gas, timber. The economies of demand will pick up our economy of supply, and, in general, the global economy will go again on a new round of growth. If we do not see it until March or April, these macroeconomic factors, then the manoeuvring between two evils - the rate and helping the real economy - will continue, and that is what the Central Bank does”.
However, according to Skorikov, there is a third scenario - devaluation: "When there is a devaluation, the cost of labor falls heavily, many industries are starting to become competitive, the economy of supply begins to produce again cheap goods that can be exported to the economy of demand. The question is if we will be allowed to export agricultural equipment or machinery. The rate will now be floating, but in the long-term trend it is not clear whether the world economy is recovering or not".
Talking about how to keep savings, Skorikov said: "The dollar will in any case die last, because the mechanism of the market economy is such that, if there is such a shock, everyone rushes to the dollar. They run out of the assets that are denominated in dollars and dollars immediately rise sharply in price, the demand increases on the dollar and it is growing , so you can keep your savings in U.S. dollars. Part of them should naturally be in rubles to compensate for the difference between the vibrational situations that occur now".
Meanwhile, Skorikov stressed: "The real economy in Russia, the economy of supply, is determined by cheap labor. Currently in Russia, as has been shown by various studies, cheap labor is over. Whereas previously there was an influx from the countryside to the city, if someone was willing to work for 10-15 thousand rubles, now there are virtually no such people. Accordingly, the only possibility to ensure the flow of cheap labor is from the CIS countries, which is now being done. Meanwhile, people constantly talk about increasing productivity Against this background, there are reductions in workplaces. The economy of supply cannot differently increase the effectiveness of capital but increasing productivity . Attracting foreign investment here has failed. Accordingly, the reduction will be, and we need to be prepared that you either will be fired or will be asked to work twice as much as before, and it's not because you are running bad , but because it is the macroeconomic situation.
