Terrorism has never been perceived as a real immediate threat in Kazakhstan. The authorities have always been more focused on combating more actual problems: drug trafficking, inter-ethnic conflicts, corruption, etc. Experts on the terrorist threat have also never regarded Kazakhstan as a 'hot spot'. In Kazakhstan terrorism has been more of an external problem coming from other countries of Central Asia. Nevertheless, Kazakh officials have made considerable progress in developing anti-terrorist laws. For example, in 2003 an Anti-terrorist Center under National Security Committee was formed and in 2006 a list of organizations considered to be terrorist by international community was introduced in Kazakhstan. Most of them are active in countries neighboring Kazakhstan.
Terrorism remained an external matter until recent events: jailbreak by religious extremist group in 2010, a gunfight between police and alleged terrorist group in 2011 and recent explosions Aktoba and Astana. Moreover, the number of Kazakh citizens arrested in Russia on charges of terrorism spiked. The toll of arrests on same charges in Kazakhstan itself has been constantly rising for some time now. The issue of terrorism became a matter of public concern and turned from external nuisance into a serious thereat within the country, undermining the authority of the government.
In reality, terrorism has been developing in Kazakhstan for quit some time now. In 90s and early 2000s Kazakhstan was a transit point for militants from different countries of the region, and in 2000s several citizens of Kazakhstan became involved with these foreign terrorist groups. First local terrorist groups emerged in mid-2000s. The number of Kazakh citizens involved in various foreign terrorist groups also increased.
Resent explosions in Astana and Aktob are a matter of great concern, despite the fact that their terrorist nature isn't yet proved. Both explosions originated in National Security Committee's offices. The evidence is still spread thin, but it seems that there's a pattern to these attacks on police and other law enforcement agencies. It appears that there's no major organized terrorist group behind these attacks (otherwise it doesn't be make any sense why hasn't it claimed the responsibility for its actions as terrorist groups always do), but nevertheless assaults on the police is one of the most common terrorist tactics (on Russia's North Caucasus, for example< as well as in Central Asia).
Terrorism is a global threat. According to the "Maplee Croft" terrorist threat rating, the level of terrorist threat in Kazakhstan is relatively low (it is much higher in GB, France or USA). We still shouldn't underestimate the danger, but stirring up public concern and panic is also harmful - each act of terror expects public resonance, and this way it will have much greater chance of succeeding in this task. Kazakhstan should maintain this fragile balance while developing new strategies of combating this "new" enemy. Erlan Karin, secretary for strategic development under 'Nur Otan' party, Head of Kazakh Anti-terrorist Center in 2005-2006.
Full version of the article on www.kursiv.kz
