Will the South Caucasus face net revolutions? What are the main sources of destabilization in the region? Is Russian position firm in the territory? The guest of the programme is Alexei Vlasov, editor-in-chief of IAA Vestnik Kavkaza. Presenter – Igor Panarin.
Panarin: Hello! Today our guest is Alexei Vlasov, editor-in-chief of IAA Vestnik Kavlaza. The topic of our discussion is the Caucasus, both North and South. The situation in the region, its stability after August 2008 and prospects of security providing and economy development of the region. Hello, Mr. Vlasov.
Vlasov: Good afternoon!
Panarin: the Caucasus has always been one of explosive zones, a zone of development of an international conflict. Today near the Caucasus one more explosive region burns, i.e. the Middle East. I mean Libya, where situation came to a deadlock. NATO admitted it cannot solve the problem. Syria, Egypt, where we can see new riots after a few months of stability. It is not quite clear in what direction the situation will develop. Will this chaos spread from the Middle East to the Caucasus?
Vlasov: Some efforts were taken to use net technologies to destabilize the situation in Azerbaijan?
Panarin: Have already been taken?
Vlasov: Yes, in February-March.
Panarin: 2011?
Vlasov: Yes. Special Services have worked effectively.
Panarin: Who has taken these efforts?
Vlasov: Graduator from schools on assimilation of democracy in Berlin.
Panarin: Oh, same old?
Vlasov: Same old idem.
Panarin: By the way, there is information that the main blogger, who seemed to by Syrian and spread reports on hundreds of killed and hurt in the Internet, is a man, who has never been to Syria and is a citizen of the US.
Vlasov: In Azerbaijan local people participate in it too, who have left the country long ago.
Panarin: You mean they leave abroad?
Vlasov: in Europe mainly.
Panarin: in Europe?
Vlasov: yeas, not in the US. As far as I can see the US try to work in the South Caucasus through European structures. It looks like the situation between Poland and Belarus in Soviet Times. Now Germany is being used in the dame way.
Panarin: As an information launch pad?
Vlasov: Yes.
Panarin: How have the Special Services of Azerbaijan been managed to do it? Do they really work well?
Vlasov: They do not give away their secrets, but I think they have traced the information, as first attempts to organize such actions took place in 2007-2008. Secret data have been involved, I believe. Thus, they isolated and blocked this net contagion. However, attempts to organize mass riots in Baku took place.
Panarin: So we can say that Azerbaijan was one of the targets of destabilization, wasn’t it?
Vlasov: I remember two years ago we discussed the developments in Chisinau and made a conclusion that the country, where such events took place, is not necessarily the target. I think the technologies’ mode of test is happening. Test: where it will work. Where – won’t, reaction of the authorities and so on.
Panarin: Special Services’ reaction?
Vlasov: Yes.
Panarin: and the society’s reaction in general?
Vlasov: Some analytical centre, which studies this data…
Panarin: and perhaps develops the strategy of further steps?
Vlasov: Yes, because if Azerbaijan were the target, more serious resources would be involved. However, it looks like a test operation.
Panarin: As for Azerbaijan, in general this country shows successful economy growth in recent years. What is the secret of such economy rise of Azerbaijan?
Vlasov: Effective usage of natural resources due to high prices for oil and gas. Recently I have been in Azerbaijani regions. I should say roads are perfect. The biggest surprise for me was Gabala, where our radar station is located. In few miles from it a wonderful children park is situated, which can compete with Disneyland in Paris. How is it possible? Ilham Aliyev says rich people: you are responsible for social conditions in this or that region. I understand that this scheme is far from democracy, but if you don’t implement your social functions, don’t build roads, cafes and hotels, your prosperity will end. This is an example of nondemocratic methods which improve social life of population. We shouldn’t exaggerate their success: Azerbaijan has a lot of problems. However, I was glad to see that the image of provinces is changing, and provinces show whether the country prospers or not.
Panarin: The hardest problem for Azerbaijan and Armenia is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Can we say that the situation remains frozen and stable or there are some factors, which show there is a threat for unfreezing the conflict?
Vlasov: Certain threat is present. Recent parade in Baku, where C-300s “Favourite” were presented, shows that mutual information pressure takes place. The main thing is not to cross the line of mutual provocation.
Panarin: And escalation?
Vlasov: Yes, and then uncontrolled escalation. A lot of modern armament is accumulated: Russian, Turkish, Israeli…
Panarin: By Azerbaijan?
Vlasov: Yes. You know how they say a gun, which hangs, can shoot at some moment. We have to give Dmitry Medvedev a credit, who keeps Yerevan and Baku away from unreasonable actions by his mediation. It is obvious that both sides of the conflict should be reasonable. The summit in Kazan showed that they are permanently offended at each other, and deny early agreements and decisions. Russian diplomacy acts patiently. Russia has great reputation risks, as we are mediators in this conflict.
Panarin: Yes. Responsibility is a function.
Vlasov: They understand laws of diplomacy quite well… But it cannot last forever.
Panarin: On the one hand, we have to bear responsibility. On the other, we have to push both sides to reasonable compromises.
Vlasov: Exactly. When people say that military budget of Azerbaijan is equal to the GDP of Armenia… But quantity is not a factor which shows which side is stronger or weaker. The point is that uncontrolled accumulation of military resources is dangerous for the region in general. Everybody plays his own game. I cannot say everything is simple in Erdogan’s Turkey…
Panarin: The situation in Turkey is very difficult.
Vlasov: Yes. I spoke with Turkish political scientists, but not with those who stand behind Erdogan. They directly say Turkish problems can get out of the authorities’ control. First of all, the problem of Kurds, then, the problem of absence of clear ideology. Army pales into insignificance as an element built by Ataturk and others…
Panarin: The base actually….
Vlasov: And what they have instead of it?
Panarin: More strict pan-Turkish components and Islamization.
Vlasov: An ideal for Russia model is that Azerbaijan and Armenia are strategic partners, which form together with Russia a balance in the South Caucasus. Of course, it sounds as a fantasy, but what is an alternative?
Panarin: There is no actual alternative in this case. Let’s return to a certain anniversary. August 2011 is a third anniversary of the conflict in the Caucasus, where Russia showed both military and diplomatic power and political will. Three years passed. New independent countries exist, some states have recognized them. How should we consider these processes? How fast do these two republics – Abkhazia and South Ossetia – develop?
Vlasov: Of course, the situation in Abkhazia got worse after death of the respected leader…
Panarin: Respected not only in Abkhazia, but also in the whole Caucasus world.
Vlasov: Not only in the Russian Caucasus, but in the Caucasus in general. He had various qualities, but he was respected leader. His death is untimely disease. Now elections will take place. Three candidates: Ankvab, Shamba and one of the opposition leaders, Raul Hadzhimba.
Campaign won’t be easy. I would like to draw your attention that a day after Bagapsh’s death the Union of veterans of the Abkhazian war (i.e. the Abkhazian-Georgian war)…
Panarin: of 1993.
Vlasov: Urged all political forces of the country to follow transparency and correctness during the election campaign. People understand that fight between clans could destroy establishment of Abkhazian statehood. Reasonable people won’t let shifting from political struggle, normal competition…
Panarin: it should exist, but…
Vlasov: It should exist but within legal environment.
Panarin: In general, is the situation in Abkhazia stable?
Vlasov: I have been to Sukhumi a couple of months ago. Economy and social situation is difficult, but stable. Many problems, which the country had a year ago, haven’t been solved, but direction of solution is defined. Connection with the Olympic Games in Sochi…
Panarin: By the way, will Sochi give an impulse?
Vlasov: I hope so. But Sochi involves many difficult…
Panarin: Hopes are connected not only with Abkhazia?
Vlasov: Of course, forecasting is a difficult thing. Another important aspect is that Turkish business expresses more and more interest.
Panarin: Toward Abkhazia?
Vlasov: Yes. Abkhazian community has great influence. Shamba’s brother, Taras Shamba, is one of the members of the Congress of Abkhazians All Around The World. They do their best to establish such points of influence.
Panarin: Beyond Abkhazia?
Vlasov: Yes. It is very smart step. I think you often visit the US. Who knows what Abkhazia is and its history? The fact they think about it is an advantage of the Abkhazian elite.
Panarin: As for South Ossetia, it was in much more difficult situation. It was attacked, a lot of people were killed, buildings were destroyed. What is the inner political situation in the country? How does the process of the statehood establishment happen?
Vlasov: The situation is not stable. Political class of a little republic is inhomogeneous.
Panarin: There is no integrity unlike in Abkhazia, is there?
Vlasov: You are right. Actually we repeat the same things we discussed a year ago. Few positive things happened during this year.
Panarin: However, what are the prospects of changing political leadership? As far as I understand the current president stated he wouldn’t stand as a candidate.
Vlasov: Yes, it was stated, but various rumors still exist.
Panarin: Thus, the situation is not clear enough, is it?
Vlasov: It is not. However, there are many interesting politicians of a high class, I think. For example, Mr. Medoyev is an ambassador in Russia. There are three-four persons, who could represent the republic. However, the situation is quite nervous. Tskhinvali reacts sharply at any publications in media. It shows they follow information environment closely. Tskhinvali doesn’t feel inner stability, and it is not connected with Georgia. It is connected with inner political processes.
Panarin: Returning to confrontation with Georgia. What about military security of South Ossetia? Can we say it is provided, moreover, powerful Russian military base is present there?
Vlasov: I think Russia is a guaranty that it won’t happen again. We have said that we risk in negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Here is the same situation. It is a reasonable decision, as the security zone of Russia starts where Abkhazia and South Ossetia are situated. We can admit success of Saakashvili in the sphere of modernization of Georgian society, on the other hand, we should admit that this man treats Russia as an enemy.
Panarin: Is he hardly to change his political direction?
Vlasov: exactly. And all his rhetoric…
Panarin: All this is another information scandal?
Vlasov: All this goes to one bank. It is accumulation of hatred. He tries to raise the same reaction in the Georgian society.
Panarin: Is there any prospect of changing the inner political elite in Georgia not only toward South Ossetia, but also to Russia? Is it real in near future? Or there is no reason for optimism?
Vlasov: I have my own point of view. Recently I have met one of the important representatives of the EU on this region. We had informal talk in Moscow. And it seemed to me that Europe and Washington wait for more adequate politician instead of Saakashvili. For Russia it will be a start of a new project. It will be a new chance.
Panarin: Moreover, our president said in 2008 that we wouldn’t have any contacts with this man.
Vlasov: We can imagine anything we want, but probably any person, who will withdraw a few positions of Saakashvili even, will be perceived by the Kremlin as a new chance for improving the dialogue.
Panarin: In fact, we can stay optimistic in next 3-5 years.
Vlasov: Yes. But there is another side too. Quality of the Georgian opposition is a problem.
Panarin: It is poor.
Vlasov: Peculiarity of the Caucasian political mentality is that when the opposition is in the situation of tactic defeat, quarrels begin, which damage its image more than the authorities. It is peculiar to Armenia and Azerbaijan too.
Panarin: Probably it is a regional feature, isn’t it?
Vlasov: It is, but it is unpleasant.
Panarin: the Caucasus and Russia. Does Russia need the Caucasus? Some media discuss the problem of necessity of the Caucasus within the Russian Federation. Probably, without it we would be stronger. What do you think?
Vlasov: Russia need both North and South Caucasus. In the context of modern geopolitical realia, giving space to foreign forces means letting them come close to our borders. That is why I have difficult attitude to Belarus and processes, which happen there. As for the North Caucasus, I see no subject for discussion. Exaggeration of this topic is artificial. It is a part of Russia. Let’s imagine what would happen if someone in the US suggests to separate states of the South, for example.
Panarin: Not only of the South. For example, Utah. They use golden and silver dollar. One of politicians of this state wants to use the idea of regional separation in the presidential elections. He was heavily criticized by all political forces in the country.
Vlasov: That’s incredible that in Russia serious people suggest building a Chinese Wall, and other people say “Yes, let’s discuss it.” It is awful!
Panarin: Of course, we need the North Caucasus, as well as the South Caucasus. Russia in fact saved peoples of Georgia and Armenia from physical destruction. From this point of view we are guaranty of stability for more than 200 years. Can Russia provide its own national interests and security of the Caucasus simultaneously?
Vlasov: As for the North Caucasus, the target is defining the strategy of what we want from the North Caucasian regions in the social and political sphere. There are several models. One of them is Kadyrov’s Chechnya, another is Yevkurov’s Ingushetia, and incompletely formed models of Dagestan and North Ossetia. I think we are too involved in regional peculiarities, I mean we play their game.
Panarin: Do we need more extensional approach?
Vlasov: Yes. We see that Khloponin works in this direction.
Panarin: By the way, does he gain any success? A year ago you spoke about youth camps and innovative projects.
Vlasov: This year they have held a youth camp. A year passed. Have you noticed what events took place in Preyelbrus region? Explosions. And it is a tourist centre. And Khloponin understands that…
Panarin: Are there efforts to prevent development?
Vlasov: There are efforts to prevent the whole branch of the region from development. I’m not sure that…
Panarin: It means that the direction is right.
Vlasov: The direction is right. However, we don’t know whether it were gangs or some other forces.
Panarin: In general, can Russia do it?
Vlasov: It can, in other case we won’t be here. I believe that such talks are connected with one aspect, i.e. searching for solution of the problem in favor of the country, as we have no other choice.
Panarin: Mr. Vlasov, let’s stop at this point. Russia has no other choice. The South and North Caucasus is our historic territory. We finish our discussion with Alexei Vlasov, editor-in-chief of IAA Vastnik Kavkaza. Good bye!
Voice of Russia.
