Small provocations can lead to full-scale war

A new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia because of Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the variants of how events could develop around the frozen conflict. The Karabakh problem was one of the main issues discussed at the conference “Twenty years of independence of the South Caucasus: achievements and challenges”, which was held in Washington at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. The participants agree that the situation still causes concern.

“Instability is rising in the conflict zone. There is breaking of the ceasefire regime and the armaments drive of both sides has increased dramatically,” Colonel Robert Hamilton from the Military College of the USA said. According to the colonel, the armaments drive could lead to a new war. The Azerbaijani economy is developing much faster than the economy of Armenia. Baku is buying new kinds of armaments. Soon it will surpass Yerevan in the sphere of military capacity. This could make some forces in Azerbaijan settle the problem by military means. Meanwhile, Armenia understands that in a few years it will yield to its neighbour, which is why it could launch a preventative strike today.

The problem of Nagorno-Karabakh will be discussed at the autumn parliamentary session of the OSCE, which is being held in Croatia on October 7-11.

Azerbaijan could be a guarantor of stability in the region

The natural resources of Azerbaijan could play a key role in the revival of the South Caucasus and the development of neighbouring countries. A leading expert of the Heritage Fund, Ariel Coen, believes: “The source of firm strength for the economic development of the Caucasus is energy, oil and gas. For Azerbaijan – development and recycling, for Turkey – transit, and we hope in the future for Armenia – transportation and recycling or similar branches.” Coen was one of the key reporters at a conference entitled “Twenty years of independence of the South Caucasus: achievements and challenges.” The energy resources of the Caspian Sea, even though they are less than Russia’s or the Middle East’s, play a significant role beyond the borders of the South Caucasus. This role is important, because Azerbaijani exports are more stable than exports from some regions of the Middle East. As the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan project showed, construction of a pipeline and transferring of energy resources from the Caspian Sea are possible. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline was opened in May 2005. It crosses the territories of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. It was planned that Georgia will receive $60 million annually for transit.

The South Caucasus is in the spotlight

Interest in the Caspian Sea region and the South Caucasus has increased in recent years. At a conference in Washington, Angele Stent, the head of the Centre for Eurasian, Russian and Eastern European Studies at Georgetown University, said: “The South Caucasus is an important strategic zone for Russia and the USA, as well as for Europe, Turkey and Iran.” Among these countries, Russian interests are most obvious, considering its geography and history. “The US can come and go, but Russia will always be there. This is the reality and we should consider it when we discuss the future of the region,” Stent stated. However, it doesn’t mean that these countries are less important for Washington. For example, the large Armenian community in the USA has serious influence, and the US want to settle the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh more than others. On the other hand, relations with Azerbaijan are important in the sphere of cooperation on security and energy supplies. Georgia sends about 1500 soldiers to Afghanistan. Stente replied to those who criticize the United States for paying less attention to the South Caucasus: the White House has to balance its presence in the region and fruitful relations with Russia, for example, in the sphere of the Afghanistan problem and cooperation with Iran.

VK.