Nicolas Sarkozy started his South Caucasian tour on October the 6th with Armenia, and then he visited Azerbaijan and Georgia. Despite that fact that this visit is a major diplomatic event for the region, Sarkozy didin’t seem to come there to make out a clear picture of the complex situation, but rather to score some points for the upcoming elections in France.
The last year wasn’t easy on the French President. The global financial crisis has made every government in the world take some unpopular steps aimed at stabilizing the macroeconomic situation. However, these measures don’t seem to have had the desired effect in France: popular incomes are falling, while unemployment grows. In addition, the Libyan campaign, inspired by Sarkozy, has proved to be quite unpopular among the French electorate. So this journey to the South Caucasus is intended to show the public at home how important Sarkozy is for world politics, as well as to remind the people of his diplomatic achievements in August 2008.
The Tbilisi government welcomed the visit too: in the face of the upcoming elections, Saakashvili’s government had to demonstrate to the people some results of the policy, aimed at Eurointegration.
Visiting Azerbaijan and Armenia was also very important for the French leader. The Armenian diaspora is one of the most influential ones in France, so the demonstration of Sarkozy’s affection for Yerevan is likely to win him additional votes. Ethnic Armenian French citizens would most definitely like the candidate who was decorated with Armenia's highest medal by Serge Sargsyan personally.
In addition, during his visits to Yerevan and Baku Sarkozy didn’t forget to stress the role of France as a mediator in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, it is unlikely that the President’s visit to Azerbaijan and Armenia would actually move the process from stalemate. Apparently, Paris is incapable of contributing on a larger scale. The French President is unlikely to be entrusted with the responsibilities of chief Karabakh conflict peace mediator, thus replacing Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in this capacity. Sarkozy promised to speed up the work in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group, but de facto he didn’t propose any new ideas regarding the problem.
While in Baku Sarkozy expressed his full support for the project of Azeri gas delivery directly to Europe. This aspect recently became the most vital question in the relations of all European countries with Azerbaijan. All 27 EU countries have unanimously supported the infrastructural project.
It seems that apart from the topical question of gas delivery, Sarkozy’s visit to the South Caucasus has proven to be nothing more than a routine regional visit on the threshold of forthcoming elections.
Elmira Tariverdieva, exclusively to VK
