The global mass media has no reasons to complain about a lack of news: new developments around the Iranian nuclear program, the euro crisis, floods in Italy and Thailand… To this background events in Syria paled into insignificance. Information on meetings is perceived as a normal peculiarity of information picture. At the same time, risk of the next region’s explosion in Damascus is high.
On the one hand, it seems ways out of crisis appeared in Syria. The authorities of the country adopted the road map on recovery from internal political conflict, which was proposed by the League of Arab States. The government agreed to start the dialogue with the opposition, free all political prisoners and withdraw army and tanks from towns. The country should also allow foreign journalist to arrive to Syria. Two weeks were given for implementation of these conditions. The general secretary of the LAS, Nabil al-Arabi, urged the Syrian authorities to stop the violence. He warned that if the proposed plan fails, consequences for the region will be dramatic.
Probably Al-Arabi understands “dramatic consequences” as foreign interference, like it was in Libya. The Arab states admit possibility of such scenario and are informed on prepared military intervention in Syria even without resolutions of the Security Council of the UN. For example, there were no resolutions on Iraq, and the USA is still a super-power.
In addition, the agreement between the LAS and the regime of Bashar Assad is a certain diplomatic success, but the situation in the country is still unstable. Promises of the Syrian authorities don’t convince anyone that Bashar Assad tempered justice with mercy. The reaction by the US at the announcement of the Syrian foreign ministry that all rebels, who lay down arms, would be forgiven is very interesting. “Did the Syrian government propose amnesty? It is the fourth proposal of amnesty since I came to office. I advise people: don’t believe the Syrian authorities,” the representative of the State Department of the US, Victoria Nuland, said. Moreover, time for such steps has hopelessly passed: the opposition considered the recent steps by Assad as concession to pressure and decided to put the squeeze on him. Vesti.ru reported that despite security measures on November 4th the opposition launched its supporters to streets of Syrian towns. The opposition began manifestations with renewed vigor, while the governmental information agency Sana reported on release of 553 prisoners. Kurds were first to start protests.
The participants of demonstrations in Kamyshly, a city in the north-eastern Syria, demanded resignation of President Assad. According to various sources, demonstrations are taking place in Al-Hirake and Al-Baalb in Homs. In Latakia the police shot at demonstrators. According to law-enforcement agencies, 17 people were killed. It is difficult to check whether the information is true or not. However, France has already heavily criticized murder of demonstrators, emphasizing that suppression of demonstrations casts doubts on intentions of official Damascus to implement the road map.
It is not easy to understand logic of official Damascus and the opposition. Escalation of violence in the country doesn’t favorable for Assad. At the moment each new victim makes the Syrian regime offer excuse to the international society. At the same time, the West will continue demands of Assad’s resignation notwithstanding any concession of Assad.
The opposition is sure that gaining a two-week reprieve the regime of Assad will rain down repressions on them. The German online-resource Cicero was told by the expert of Berlin Fund of Science and Policy, Heiko Wimmen that many demonstrators burnt bridges. ”If Assad’s regime becomes strong again and the revolution is suppressed as it was in Iran, it will be obvious: the special services will return to the regions, where they have no access at the moment. And then among demonstrators there will be those, who give away their current “friends.” Everybody knows it and everybody is in the streets today,” the expert says. The opposition doesn’t trust the regime. It doesn’t want to surrender, and the situation is seemed deadlocked for it. Moreover, the opposition has no chances to defeat the army. Wimmen noted that even 2-10 thousand of deserted soldiers cannot resist the Syrian authorities.
Thus, stabilization of the situation in Syria through a road map is unlikely. There are two ways it can end: foreign military operation against the regime or long-term campaigns on suppression and repressions against rebels. Next two weeks will tell us what scenario will be chosen.
Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European bureau of VK
