“Russia’s membership in the WTO will bring long-term profits”

“Russia’s membership in the WTO will bring long-term profits”

One of the key-topics of the last week was the IAEA report on Iranian nuclear program and the threats by Western states to launch a preemptive strike against Iran. Following these developments experts tried to estimate the actual possibility of an armed conflict in the region. Another important event of the week is the final agreement of Georgia on Russian membership in the WTO. The head of the Socio-political Research Center Vladimir Yevseyev told VK correspondent his opinion on these urgent topics.

- The latest IAEA report on Iranian nuclear program stirred up a wave of negative reaction from the Western countries and Israel, including threats of military strikes against Iranian military targets. How serious are these threats and why did this report cause such a reaction in the first place?

- Actually, this report hasn’t yet been officially promulgated. The US, in fact, orchestrated a leak of this information. So this is a sort of provocation.
In mid-October an ex-CIA agent of Iranian origin published an article in a US paper claiming that Iran possesses nuclear warheads stolen from Ukraine and Kazakhstan in the confusion that followed the collapse of the USSR. So basically it means that Iran is already a nuclear power. I’m preparing a response to this article and I’m going to prove that this has nothing to do with the reality.
At roughly the same time there was this turmoil about the attempt on Saudi Arabian ambassador’s life by Iranian agents in Washington – information dubious at best. Than the IAEA added old data to its latest report despite China’s and Russia’s objections. This data was relevant in 2003, but not now. And there’s Israel that threatens to launch an attack on Iran unless the UN imposes further sanctions against the country. All these facts tell us one thing: a large-scale media campaign against Iran is unleashed. Israeli and US governments are its strongest partisans. Some uncertain conjectures are being presented as solid facts to suit the political agenda of certain forces to the prejudice of the truth.

- Do you think Russia and China will be able to prevent this situation from spinning out of control?

- I don’t believe that the UN Council will introduce new sanctions against Iran now, as there are no solid grounds for that. But if a new nuclear complex, for example, Fardu, will be commissioned by Iran, that would be a sufficient basis. All the UN has now is old and unverified data. So the UN and the EU can only widen their unilateral sanctions against Iran, but they can’t convince the UN to introduce sanctions.
As for Israel, of course, it is prepared for an armed conflict, but to deliver an efficient nuclear air strike it would need to re-arm its air fleet, and this would take approximately 2 years. And some military targets in Iran, like the Fardu complex, are impossible to destroy without a nuclear strike. Besides, Iran is doubling all its most important strategic facilities. So right now Israel doesn’t have the potential for an efficient military campaign that would destroy all Iranian military complexes.

- But if Israel delivers an airstrike, that would inevitably lead to a full-scale war?
- Yes, as there are so many targets that it is impossible to destroy them all with a short series of airstrikes, even if Israeli planes will have an opportunity to land and refuel in Saudi Arabia.

- The chance of that is slim, I gather…

- It is not a pure fantasy, but it’s not a fact either. After the incident with the ambassador Saudi Arabia mistrusts Iran. The members of Saudi ruling house are not unanimous in this issue and there’s no saying which fraction will gain the upper hand. And the Israel air forces will have to land somewhere, as it’s a long way to Iran, and Kuwait has already declared that it won’t grant them such permission.

- Why this surge of attention towards Iran happens now?

- I think it is due to the internal political problems in Israel.

- So Iran here is not the issue? Some say that the West wants to profit from the conflict within Iranian ruling elite…

- Iran currently doesn’t pose any military threat whatsoever, so there’s also no need for such a strike. So the claims of Israel are aimed mostly at strengthening the position of the current government within the country and to make the UN extend sanctions against Iran.
And among other things Israel finds itself in a worsening situation after the revolution in Egypt. Sinai Peninsula is now defenseless against various terrorist groups and is open for those who want to help the Gaza Strip. We all remember resent conflict between Israel and Egypt.
And if the situation n Syria gets on the same track than Israel will be surrounded by instability and its security will be threatened from all directions. So if Israel strikes against Iran it won’t solve their actual immediate problems, but it will help weaken their hostile neighbors. So it’s not only about Iran in any case. But I still think that a military strike is now impossible and that the information war will continue.

- Russia and Georgia completed their WTO negotiations. What’s going to happen next?

- Russia complied with some of the Georgian requests on monitoring the borders, and it’s a good thing. It is a sort of Russian-Georgian stabilization, even though the main problem between the two countries (the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia) seems irresolvable, at least for now. Russia needed this stabilization to remove a considerable obstacle in its relations with the West.
Some say that Russia actually doesn’t need the WTO, but I believe that our membership in the WTO will bring long-term profits and is important for us. Russia has to be integrated into global economy, and not only in the sense of oil and gas deals. However, I don’t quite understand how our intention to expand the Customs Union and create the Eurasian Union correlates with the WTO membership.
Present members of the Customs Union are not WTO members, but Kyrgyzstan is, but Russia still wants to see it in its Union. So it might create a president for Russia. But Russia will have to introduce certain changes – not only to its economic relations with the West, but also to its relations with Customs Union partners. So it’s a good thing that there are no ‘extra’ members in this Union yet – like Ukraine, that Russia wants in the Union so much. Russia will be able to find a common language with Belarus and Kazakhstan, but it might have had some serious problems with Ukraine in the present situation. Moreover, it might give Kazakhstan a WTO chance too.
As for Kyrgyzstan joining the Customs Union, I don’t believe that’s such a good idea: there are almost no customs barriers in this country so chip Chinese merchandises will flood Russian market.

Interview by Evgeniy Krishtalev

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