IAEA report. Possible consequences

IAEA report. Possible consequences

The IAEA published a report on November 9 that was followed by discordant responses. The US and the European Union insist that the report confirms the military nature of the Iranian nuclear program and justifies sanctions against Tehran. Russia and China have a contrary view. Some media say that the IAEA report caused the hostile attitude of Israel.


Some possible consequences of the IAEA report were discussed in a video conference Moscow - Tel Aviv, that stressed the Israeli attitude towards the Iranian nuclear program.


Shalom Arari, former Israeli General Brigadier, former Advisor Defense Minister, political expert, believes that the IAEA report proves what Israel has been talking about for years. Arari says that Iran is secretly building a nuclear bomb and developing nuclear arms with launch mechanisms. According to Arari, the range of Iranian systems exceeds the distance to Israel, allowing missiles to hit Europe. The best way to affect Iran is harsh economic and diplomatic sanctions.


Rajab Safarov, Director of the Center for Studies of Modern Iran, commented on Arari's statements and expressed support for the position of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, saying that the IAEA confirmed facts familiar to the world society. Safarov believes that the IAEA has become an instrument for political manipulation of Western states, headed by the United States. The report was composed under the dictation of the US special services to affect the world public attitude, gain support for the resolution of the UN Security Council and develop oppositional views in Iran.


Vladimir Sajin, expert of the Iranian Sector of the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, supposes that if the IAEA manages to bring evidence for each point of the report, Russia and China would reconsider their positions. He acknowledges the military nature of the nuclear program. Sajin believes that development of nuclear infrastructure in Iran would soon reach the level of Germany, Japan, Brazil, Argentina and the Netherlands. The expert doubts that such situation carries a military threat because Iran cannot compete with the US, NATO or Russia. The threat of the Iranian nuclear program lies in possible rearrangement if forces in the Gulf and stimulation of nuclear programs in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states where full-fledged control over nuclear is impossible and where terrorists may obtain the nuclear arsenal.


Vladimir Yevseyev, Director of the Center for Socio-Political Studies, unlike Safarov and Sajin, points out that the latest report differs from the previous ones for its publicity and availability of confidential information for mass media. Yevseyev says that information in the report concerns the years 2003-2004 and is outdated. The expert underlined that the technological potential of Iran carries no nuclear or missile threat for Israel.


Shalom Arari replied to comments of theRussian experts and said that Israel, with its historic experiences, tends to take threats of Iranian authorities seriously. He believes that Iran is planning development of its nuclear program and a war against Israel via extremism. Such extremism would be a threat for Russia as well, especially in the Caucasus Region. Russian authorities realize the problem and limit their support for Iran, for example, by cancelling the deal on shipments of the S-300 anti-missile complexes and halting of construction of the second nuclear block at the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Arari underlined that the main threat is merging of the nuclear bomb with the ideological bomb of the Islamic extremism, which is developing in the Muslim states of the Middle East, such as Pakistan, Libya and Egypt.

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