The Moscow city center was relatively peaceful last night, additional police forces were mobilized to maintain order. The police detained about 20 people yesterday. Atbout 600 people were detained earlier for unsanctioned protests at the Triumfalnaya Square. Its initiators and activists expressed disagreement with the parliamentary polls held on Sunday. The latest information says that the parliament will have 4 parties: the United Russia with 238 mandates, the CPRF – 92 mandates, Fair Russia – 64 mandates and the LDPR – 56 mandates, CEC head Vladimir Churov said at a meeting with President Dmitry Medvedev. A round-table conference was organized with the topic “Results of parliamentary polls: what next?” where experts discussed the polls and prospects for further development and forecasts for presidential polls.
Dmitry Orlov, Director General of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications, says that the elections made the government more legitimate, satisfied foreign observers and parliamentary parties and reflect interests of the population impartially: “As a chairman of the electoral campaign Fair Elections, I would like to say that violations on the election day and in the electoral campaign in general that could raise doubts on fairness and legality of the elections have not taken place. The United Russia, definitely, earned the absolute majority of votes”. The ruling party received 53% of vote, after redistribution of votes of parties that failed to pass the 5% barrier. It may realize any bills. The expert believes that the “system of coalitions” that has had so many discussions recently should not be overestimated.
The United Russia would, obviously, need to form coalitions and its partner would most likely be the LDPR, although that would only be necessary in passing federal laws and introduction of amendments to the Constitution, such issues do not rise often. Fair Russia and the LDPR have already announced their readiness for coalitions with the United Russia because the party will not have an opportunity to choose a partner. Orlov noted that the recent declaration of Fair Russia to have compromise with the ruling party made the party lose face at a certain point, it had positioned itself as rigorous opposition during the campaigning period.
Orlov says that public demand for dialogue in the Russian policy, for account of opinion of a wide range of social levels has now been fulfilled and discussions of bills at the parliament will now be livelier. The current situation also calls for a greater need of opposition between left radicalism and populism promoted by the CPRF.
Financial stability will remain a priority for the United Russia, but that does not mean that the party’s course would see no changes. Corrections will be made in the non-budget sphere and in social policy, which was discussed by Putin in his speech at the party’s assembly. For example, there will be reconsiderations in the tax policy. As a result, owners of greater income and expensive real estate would pay higher taxes. The parliamentary polls would not have a sufficient effect on the government structure.
Regarding others, less successful parties, Orlov noted that Yabloko will continue receiving state financing because it passed the 3% barrier and remains as part of the existing political system. Fair Russia turned out to be more efficient in its agitation campaign than Yabloko. “I am sorry that Yabloko failed to pass the 5% barrier: their minimal presence in the parliament was very needed”, Orlov said.
The United Russia is almost the only guarantor of investors’ rights and the financial-economic stability in general, as well as representation of liberal forces in the parliament”, Orlov said. He underlined that the majority the party relies on needs an update. “It is not the third “reboot” that started in spring and summer of 2011 with support of the All-Russian People’s Front and other coalition structures”, Orlov clarified. “I believe that reduction of protest mood (according to opinion polls) from that point happened due to those efforts. The protest was absorbed”. But that was only the first stage. Putin’s majority should also be backed by the social layers of people oriented on justice (not in the comparative meaning), backed by urban layers that supported Fair Russia, because the party is against Putin. “Putin, as a supporter of modernization and as a man capable of coping with modern challenges, may win support of a wide range of social layers. At the same time, however, the previous electoral campaign did not use the “Putin factor” to attract more votes, which is why we cannot talk about inactivity of using Putin’s image”, Orlov states.
“Putin remains the most popular politician in the country and, doubtlessly, his support at the presidential polls will be greater than support of the United Russia because “Putin’s majority” is a wider coalition than the United Russia. On the contrary, Mironov and Zyuganov are less popular than the parties they head. Combination of these factors would allow the ruling elite lead by Putin to achieve a resounding triumph at the coming elections”, Orlov hopes
