says Vladimir Yevseyev, leading expert of the International Security Center
Only a few days are left till the end of 2011. This year will be remembered as the year of the ‘Arab spring’, the year of the eurozone crisis, the year when Russia completed its accession to the WTO, the year of the climax of the Iranian nuclear issue and a year of global political instability, of political turmoil in South Ossetia and Russia. How did all these events affect Russia’s position in the Caucasus? Is Russian influence still strong in this region? Vladimir Yevseyev, leading expert of the International Security Center under the Institute of Global Economy and International Relations, shared his opinion on these matters with VK.
Vladimir Yevseyev:
First of all, I would like to say that the Caucasus is becoming more and more involved into a wider region. Of course, the most memorable events of this year are the events that started in North Africa – in Tunisia, first of all. It seemed that all these events take place very-very far away from the Caucasus, so their influence over this region seemed to be almost impossible. However, later the revolutionary events spread out through the Middle East approaching the region of the Caucasus. When Syria became involved into this process, it became clear that the Caucasus is not at all isolated from the region of the big Middle East. And now Syria is on the edge of a civil war, Turkey and France are actively meddling in this state’s affairs; Russia had to deploy its military ships in the Mediterranean for the first time since 1999 – that means that Russia had to assume an active position in the Middle Eastern affairs.
This autumn the Iranian nuclear crisis reached yet another climax; there were talks of a possibility of a military solution to it. For us it is mostly disturbing as it could have a direct impact on Caucasian developments. Israel became more independent from the US and is now ready to take its own decisions, and of course any of its decisions concerning Iran would affect Azerbaijan. Secondly, I have to point out that due to certain reasons Barack Obama’s administration is pushing Israel to use power against Iran, and I find it very disturbing. The thing that revolts me the most in this whole situation is that Iran poses no real threat to Israel whatsoever. Under current circumstances using military force against Iran would be illogical, but it is quite real. I’m not saying that it will definitely happen next year, but there is a chance.
I wouldn’t say that this year wasn’t a success for us. Yes, of course we entered the WTO, we finally managed to make this deal with Georgia, but there was no progress in the issues of South Ossetia or Nagorno-Karabakh. In the latter case the situation got even worse. So there was no real progress on the South Caucasus. The only success here is that Nagorno-Karabakh talks continue, the dialog carries on. American sociologists have an interesting theory, it’s called ‘the bicycle theory’. It stipulates that if you carry on pedaling, you won’t fall of the bicycle. If the Karabakh negotiations stop, it may lead to a new armed conflict. I can’t say that Russia reached any actual results here, there were no breakthroughs. At the same time, we shouldn’t depict the situation more dramatic as it is, but this unstable balance is quite dangerous and Russia needs to be actively involved.
However, Russia’s position is aggravated by the fact that it is losing its grip on the North Caucasus – of course, it’s only my personal point of view. Russian-speaking people keep emigrating from the Caucasus Republics; there remain only 5% of native Russian speakers in Chechnya, as far as I know. The level of emigration form other republics is high too. The situation in Dagestan is very unstable. Only Adygeya is relatively calm, but the Cherkess problem is being imposed there too. I believe that the situation is quite grave. And the fact that Russia is unable to fully control the North Caucasus stops it from making any real contributions to the situation on the South Caucasus. But of course Russia can coordinate its efforts with Turkey. And the fact that it consults Turkey despite our disagreement on the matter of Syria shows quite a positive trend.
By VK
