The world has been following the development of the conflict between the US and Iran for a long time. Washington accuses Tehran of intention to create nuclear arms, while Iran insists on purely peaceful objectives of its nuclear program. 2011 was a year of escalation of the conflict, which was born in 1979, after the IRI was formed. The Busher nuclear power station was launched, and the general situation in the region worsened by a series of Arab revolutions. Yesterday the problem of Iran was discussed by Russian experts.
According to the head of the Center of Contemporary Iran Research, Radzhab Safarov, the situation around the country becomes worse every day. He called the policy of Western countries adventure. As for the latest report by the IAEA, Safarov noted that the Western world headed by the US needed a reason, whole the target itself is obvious: overthrow of the political regime in Iran. He emphasized that it’s not about the nuclear program, as Iran doesn’t need nuclear armament: the country has resources for transportation of missiles to potential targets, and sums of money spent to development of nuclear program are huge for wasting them for armament rather than settlement of energy problems.
At the moment any mistake or provocation might lead to tragic consequences. Safarov thinks that it is the US that interested in military confrontation with Iran, not Israel, which will risk too much.
What objectives can the US achieve in case of direct military conflict? Safarov thinks it would help to reorient all countries of the Central Asia to Washington and open the Caspian Sea for the USA Navy, and all states of the South Caucasus would enter NATO (and Armenia would refuse from Nagorny Karabakh). Thus, the CIS and CSTO wouldn’t exist longer, the SCO would have to undergo a series of radical changes, and energy flows of the Southern Corridor would be reoriented in the way of excluding Russia from necessary importers of energy resource in Europe. In such situation Russia wouldn’t earn sufficient amount of money for supporting its budget. Thus, implementation of American plans in Iran is a serious threat for Russia, as if the US occupies the territory of Iran, dozens of American military bases will be established close to Russian borders. Moreover, the US influence will be dominant in all countries of the region. Safarov think Russia shouldn’t have a waiting position. “Collapse of the political system in Iran is a beginning of the Russian Federation dissolution,” Safarov stated.
Not all experts agreed with his ideas. Professor Vladimir Sazhin thinks that the main reason for the current tense situation in the Middle East is the nuclear program of Iran. According to Sazhin, from 2009 the government of Iran provides a sharp confrontation policy without compromises, and now Europe’s patience ran out – the Council of Europe decided to launch oil embargo against Iran. According to economists’ forecasts, Iran might lose $15-20 billion annually. Iran stated on its intention to block the Strait of Hormuz, which can be a formal declaration of war against the USA and Arab states of the Persian Gulf. Sazhin thinks that if Iran refuses from the idea of blocking the Strait, a military confrontation won’t take place until the presidential elections in Iran in summer at least.
Oriental scientist, Vladimir Isayev, didn’t agree with it. He noted that the situation in the Middle East is very close to an explosion, which can be prevented only by efforts of the international society. However, the international society is busy with other problems and doesn’t want to be responsible for settlement of the situation in the region.
Mahmud Al-Hamza, the head of the Committee of Syrian Revolution Support from Russia, said that Iran and the US try to interfere with internal policies of the region’s states. Tehran follows double standards toward Arab revolutions by supporting the Syrian regime. Before Arab revolutions Iran had bad relations with the countries of the region, after them the relations improved, but by supporting of Bashar Assad’s regime Tehran might lose them.
