by VK
The Russian Public Opinion Research Center (WCIOM) held opinion polls in December 2011 to determine preferences at the upcoming presidential polls in March. WCIOM predicted back then that Putin would gain 52.6% of the vote, followed by Gennady Zyuganov with 16.4%, Vladimir Zhirinovski – 12%, Sergey Mironov – 9.5%, Mikhail Prokhorov – 4.8%, Grigory Yavlinsky – 3.9%.
Two forecasts have been made since the ones in December, with figures constantly changing. The latest opinion polls were held on February 11-12. the pollster predicts Putin getting 58.6% of vote, followed by Gennady Zyuganov with 14.8%, Vladimir Zhirinovski – 9.4%, Mikhail Prokhorov – 8.7%, Sergey Mironov – 7.7%. About 1% of voting sheets are expected to be invalid.
Director General of WCIOM Valery Fedorov stressed forecasts in Moscow and Saint-Petersburg. Three opinion polls were held in November, January and February. Moscow planned to give 46% of vote to Putin in November, the figure dropped to 43% in January and remained unchanged in February. Prokhorov is expected to receive 12% of vote in January and 14% in February. Zyuganov – 9%, Vladimir Zhirinovski – 7%, Sergey Mironov – 4%.
Saint-Petersburg showed different results. 51% of its people wanted to vote for Putin in November, 47% in January, 46% in February. Mikhail Prokhorov – 11%, Gennady Zyuganov – 8%, Sergey Mironov – 6%, Vladimir Zhirinovski – 5%.
WCIOM believes that Putin will receive 43.7% in Moscow, Mikhail Prokhorov -17.2%, despite Gennady Zyuganov being the second most popular in Russia. The communist leader will end up with 14.5%, followed by Mironov and Zhirinovski – 9.9% each. About 5% of polling sheets are expected to be invalid. Saint-Petersburg has similar forecasts as Moscow: 46.7% for Putin, 16% for Prokhorov, 12.7% for Zyuganov, 13.4% for Mironov, 8.4% for Zhirinovski and about 3% will be invalid.
Valery Fedorov believes that the only intrigue is who would be the last, because the winner is obvious. It seemed as though Mikhail Prokhorov would be the last, according to data in January, but opinion polls in February show that Sergey Mironov would most likely end up last. “This has provoked many scenarios of post-electoral “rumbles”, regrouping at political parties, because when a party leader introduced as candidate for president gains less votes than the party at polls held recently, on December 4, it is a reason for thinking over, and may be even change of leader. Although, we had only one case of the leader of a lisong party resigning, it was Grigory Yavlinsky. But he can still be seen behind Mitrokhin in Yabloko. All other leaders remain at power, despite losing”, Fedorov reminds.
