By VK
After the Presidential vote in Russia experts from Moscow, Kiev, Kishinev, Yerevan and Astana shared their opinions on the prospects of the relations between Russia and the Post-Soviet states in the CIS frames.
Sergei Mikheev, the Head of the Political Situation Center:
It is obvious that Putin fairly won in the first round and he deserved the victory. Even several human rights organizations had to admit that Putin de facto passed the 50% barrier. The official result of the elections is 63.60% in Putin’s favor. But anyway Putin is the number 1 politician in our state and a very popular figure who still has the trust of the major part of Russia society. There is a civic consensus. Of course, it is possible that the situation will change and that a lot depends on how Putin will treat his pre-election promises. And there are a lot of them. As for the rest – the Moscow rallies, I mean – it’s a mere post-election reaction, its naïve to think it will have any effect on the actual state of affairs at all. Putin won’t give up his victory for nothing, rally all you want. On the other hand, opposition activity has triggered a certain desire to reform the political system, first of all, make the registration of political parties easier, and that could have certain effect on our political landscape.
As for the foreign politics, Putin has made himself clear in two articles: first one treated the issue of the Eurasian Union, and started, as I think, a whole series of articles on major foreign policy topics, while the second one was the last pre-election article by Putin. Both articles had pre-election qualities, but I think that it is also a long term strategy, and they will be the basis of Russia’s foreign politics for quite a while. I don’t think we have to expect surprises here. Russia will develop mutually beneficial integration projects with those who wish to participate. As for other countries, we also invite them to participate. We’ll se how it goes.
Bolat Baykadamov, the Head of the Parliamentary Institution of Nur-Otan party, Kazakhstan:
I think that that Russia will go back to a more definite politics within the country as well as foreign. Putin’s political program hasn’t changed much since his first term. As for the foreign policy, pretty much the only stable thing about it is the relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan and other CIS-members. The only thing that changed is that the share of these relations in the general foreign strategy of Russia has increased considerably. I think these relations will change over the new term of Putin, as all CIS-members grow and develop, and it will have its impact, especially in the issues of modernization cooperation.
Mikhail Pogrebinsky, the Head of the Kiev Political Research and Conflictology Center:
For now the Eurasian Union project looks purely virtual to me. I don’t yet see its actual shape. As for Ukraine’s possible participation, there are two main issues to be addressed. First one is of economic nature: when Yushenko, a harshly anti-Russian politician, was Ukrainian President, the economic interaction between our two countries, nevertheless, didn’t come to a halt and it grew rapidly over the past two years. Today our trade turnover, if I’m not mistaken, is more than $50 million. I think that those issues on which we can’t agree still can be resolved successfully, and in a couple of month the issue of pragmatization of our economic relations will be on the top of the agenda. I hope we’ll manage the unfortunate old dispute on gas prices, as well as the question of our participation in the Customs Union.
But there is yet another, political, component to the problem. Ukraine is in a unique position: its between Russia and Europe. We have taken up a lot of responsibilities to Europe, but it is obvious that we have no hope of becoming a EU member in the next 20 years. Even so, Ukraine is interested in rapprochement with Europe, no matter the political force in power.
Alexander Iskanderyan, the Head of the Caucasus Institute
Russia is a very important partner for Armenia. It is imperative for Armenia that the format of our relations remains unchanged no matter the changes in Russia. The public understands it as well as the politicians. But I don’t believe that Russia would radically change its policy towards Armenia or any other CIS-state.
Alexander Markarov, the head of the Armenian office of the CIS States Institute:
We don’t anticipate any changes the relations between Russia and Armenia: the nature of Russia’s politics will remain the same. The only thing that’s going to change, as I think, is the style of Russian leadership, but its political and economic essence will remain the same. Putin stressed that he will strengthen the cooperation within the frames of the CIS and CSTO, and that these organizations will be ready to face new challenges. So Russian policy in the region will be defined not only by bilateral relations, but by a broader picture.
Nikolai Kirtoake, the head of the Independent Institute of Strategic Research, Moldavia:
We see CIS as a platform for political discussions. You all know that this organization’s efficiency leaves much to be desired. Only 10% of its decisions are actually carried out. As for the idea of the Eurasian Union that was launched in the campaigning period, we see it as a general concept lacking actual contents. As for Russian-Moldovan relations, we will pursue concrete goals – stability, trade and economic development. We would very much like our goods not to be discriminated on Russian market.
Another sharp point is Transdnistrian problem settlement. Our public appreciates the constructive role of Russia that led to the re-launch of five-lateral negotiation process as well as to conciderable changes in the region itself: a new, energetic leader was elected, and he is open for dialog. And of course we understand that Russian relations with our mutual neighbors – Ukraine and Romania -will have a direct impact on our bilateral relations.
Evgeniy Minchenko, the head of the International Institute of political expertise:
I think that the CIS-priority of our policy will remain and it will become the main political project of Putin’s forth term – I mean, this forth term is starting today, as de facto Putin was the head of our state and never left. And it would be very important for him to finish his political career, which he started by preventing Russia from falling apart, by an equally strong move.
