By Alexei Vlasov, exclusively to VK
The inauguration of the new South Osseti President, Leonid Tibilov, is scheduled for April, 19. Tibilov is to become the third president of the independent Ossetia. After the poll’s results were announced, Russian President Medvedev sent a letter to his new Osseti counterpart , saying the he is sure that uder the leadership of Leonid Tibilov Ossetia will carry on it’s way to democratic society, general stability and international recognition, and assured that the republic can count on Russia’s help and support. One shouldn’t dismiss this letter as purely formal as the pre-election atmosphere in Ossetia was very tense and the fact that the voting was conducted without any major trouble can be regarded as quite a success. And if Russia wants to maintain its influence on the south Caucasus, it will have to pay special attention to the image factor into account: the successes of further development of the ex-Georgian republics are now much more important than the victory of 2008.
Today there are two main factors that form Kremlin’s policy towards South Ossetia: first of all, it is the gradual transformation of the Osseti statehood into an independent and stable form. For now Russia has to help Ossetia, but some time Tskhinvali will have to become able to provide for itself. Secondly, Russia will never renounce its decision to recognize Ossetia’s sovereignty. In this context Russia aspires to turn the new republic into a showcase of its successful policy on the South Caucasus.
This goal is quite achievable with Tibilov heading Ossetia. The ex-head of local KGB office is a very efficient manager capable of cleaning the administrative system of inefficient bureaucrats. However, the latter rave a lot of connections, including family ones, and this factor can’t be ignored. It seems that the ex-President Eduard Kokoyti will retain a certain level of political influence in the parliament and in the system of executive parliament, but this influence will be in no way decisive.
As for other political leaders in the country, Alla Dzhioeva still retains a certain level of influence. She announced the creation of a new party – ‘Ossetia – territory of Liberty’, but she and her partisans haven’t yet defined their attitude towards the new president. Tibilov’s main rival Sanakoyev also announced the creation of his own party. So there’s a multi-party system in Ossetia, but for now it is reduced to a number of ‘political support’ groups centered round most popular political figures.
In orger to achieve social and economic progress Tibilov will have to take this national specificity of Ossetia into account. In any case, Tibilov is a person that enjoys the trust of Kremlin and can be trusted with major founds.
