The presidential campaign has begun in Nagorno-Karabakh. Four candidates are going to struggle for the post of head of this breakaway region. Experts assume that the result of the struggle is predetermined. They associate this fact with the aggravation of the situation on the borderline with Azerbaijan.
Bako Saakyan, the current head of the republic, is considered to be the favorite of the campaign. His main rival is Vitali Balasanyan, a deputy of the National Assembly. In addition, Arkadi Sogomonyan, the rector of the local branch of the Armenian State Agrarian University, and Valeri Khhchatryan, who is currently unemployed, will participate in the struggle for the post. Experts consider the chance of the latter two candidates to be negligible.
Unlike other electoral processes in post-Soviet countries, Moscow hasn’t got any favorite in this case. The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic has not been recognized by any state, including Armenia which is its patron. Russia is an intermediary between Baku and Yerevan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; it recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Therefore it cannot have any official relations with the leaders of the breakaway region, Alexei Vlasov, the editor-in-chief of VK notes.
“There are some officials among Russian politicians who have special relations with the elite of the Nagorno-Karabakh republic, including experts and even Duma deputies, but they do not represent the official point of view of our country. I suppose the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, as before, will be considered in the context of settling the conflict with our participation, but no more. Russia can hardly build special ties with the Nagorno-Karabakh republic.
Concerning the prospects of settling the conflict, the results of the presidential campaign in the republic will not influence this issue. The first reason for this is the fact that the representatives of the Nagorno-Karabakh republic don’t participate in the negotiations on this problem. The second reason is that the sides should be ready to agree to compromise in order to overcome the deadlock, but the favorite of the campaign, Bako Saakyan, thinks that it is impossible to make any concessions to Azerbaijan. At the same time, Alexei Vlasov is sure that Saakyan’s victory is predetermined:
“Most of the candidates registered by the Central Electoral Commission will play subordinate roles. It is a known fact that Bako Saakyan is the main favorite in the coming presidential elections. That’s why we cannot speak about true competition of programs or ideas; we can speak about a quasi-competition created by the participation of three other candidates who emphasize the advantages and political experience of Bako Saakyan, the current head of the republic. It is a gross exaggeration to say that these elections will really be competitive or there will be any intrigue in them,” Alexei Vlasov summed up.
