David Stepanyan, Yerevan, exclusively to VK
The recent visit of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia has provoked certain reflections amongst experts of the South Caucasus republics about the real purpose of her visit. It is a known fact that the United States has been trying to promote a project of neutralizing the growing ambitions of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Yerevan, Baku and Tbilisi for quite a while. It is also no secret that Israeli diplomats take part in these negotiations. At the same time, the position of Russia, the main strategic ally of Armenia, on Iran and Syria is radically different from the position of the United States, Israel and the Western community. Washington and Tel Aviv are planning aggression against Tehran and Damascus, while Moscow is doing its best to solve the problems of the Syrian issue and Iranian nuclear issue peacefully. In this context, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia will have to choose between the geopolitical interests of Moscow and Washington sooner or later.
It is remarkable that the position of Tbilisi on this issue substantially differs from those of Baku and Yerevan. Georgia, which is trying to become a member of NATO, a long-time dream of Tbilisi, is trying its best to make U.S. soldiers feel comfortable on its territory. Another manifestation of the close cooperation between Georgia and the United States in the defense sector was the visit of the ex-U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to Georgia which began on the 21st of June. Rumsfeld has already met with the Minister of Defence of Georgia, Bacho Akhalaia; they discussed the issues of improving Georgia's defense and military education. The conversation also touched on Georgia's participation in peace-making operations in Afghanistan (ISAF) and the prospects of integration into NATO. However, according to some analysts, the real purpose of this visit is actually to discuss the probable involvement of Georgia in the operation of neutralizing Iran.
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In fact, the Pentagon has already established all the necessary infrastructure for starting an operation against Iran on the territory of Georgia. The most obvious and visible part of it is quite an extended concrete six-lane freeway built with American funds as a section of the road from Tbilisi to Poti. Given the sufficiently strong foundation of the new road, as well as its location, the freeway, if desired, and the Pentagon has such a desire, may serve as a runway for US-NATO fighter jets if the Pentagon suddenly decides to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities and more. Given the bad relations between Mikhail Saakashvili and Vladimir Putin, who still doesn’t pay any attention to Mikheil Nikolozovich, the latter can do nothing but support his satrap, i. e. the United States, which has an obvious interest in the neutralization of Iran.
The situation with Armenia and Azerbaijan is a bit different. Yerevan is connected to the Moscow Treaty on Strategic Partnership, the majority of the strategically-important faclities are either in the ownership or management of the concession of Russia. In Armenia, there are such Russian companies as MTS, Gazprom, Rusal, railway companies and Rosatom. In addition, it is Moscow that continues to play the role of the main moderator of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, though within the framework of the Minsk Group. It is remarkable that this occurs with the full consent of Armenia and the forced consent of Azerbaijan, because there are too many third countries seeking to participate in the settlement of the conflict. The 102nd military base in Gyumri, equipped with the S-300, the most powerful systems of air defense and military technologies, also takes an important place in bilateral cooperation. The personnel of the base is about 5000 people. The centuries-old Armenian-Iranian relations are another issue. The Islamic Republic has pretty strong ties with Armenia, both in the political an the economic sphere. The latest manifestation of the Islamic Republic’s interest in the implementation of economic projects in the country was an agreement on joint construction of the Megri Hydro-electric Power Plant on the river Araks, separating Armenia and Iran. The Megri HPP will be the largest hydropower project in the Caucasus. Armenian-Iranian relations can be discussed a long time, just as Armenian-Russian ones can be.
Meanwhile, in Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia are perceived in a somewhat different perspective than in Armenia. However, this fact is not surprising, given the strategic relations between Baku and Ankara. The relations between Azerbaijan and Iran are a different topic, which is rather confusing, because since 2012 these relations have significantly aggravated. The formal reason was the close friendship of Baku with Israel which, to put it mildly, Tehran does not really like. However, Israeli politicians openly admit that the good relations between Israel and Azerbaijan are a part of the Israeli concept of encircling Iran, which Armenia does not fit for obvious reasons. The latest manifestation of the Israeli-Azerbaijani friendship was an agreement to supply Israeli weapons to Azerbaijan worth 1.6 billion dollars. It is also noteworthy that 40% of oil imported to Israel is from Azerbaijan, which has, moreover, quite a powerful lobby in Israel. Considering all these factors, Tehran has voiced veiled threats against Baku at the highest level many times, which will be implemented if the latter dares to support the US-Israeli plans to neutralize the IRI. The latest transaction of supplying Israeli weapons has caused a new round in the "cold war" between Baku and Tehran. So the Azerbaijani authorities are now facing a serious dilemma: supporting NATO's aggressive plans, and thus becoming a rival of Iran, or supporting the peace-making efforts of Moscow, thus antagonizing Washington.
Currently, the global confrontation with Iran has moved to the context of the confrontation around the civil war in Syria. Today, the U.S. and the Western world are trying their best to destroy the undesirable for them but legitimate regime of Bashar al-Assad. Russia and China consistently protect Assad by imposing a veto on the project of the resolution on Syria in the UN Security Council. Based on this foreign policy of Moscow, it is clear that the Kremlin is not going to allow the implementation of a Libyan scenario in Syria, when after the adoption of the UN Security Council resolution which was used for bombing Libya the regime of Muammar Qaddafi was destroyed. Moscow believes that Russia and the U.S. should use their power to influence the Syrian authorities and the opposition and stop armed confrontation. Today it is broadly understood that after the fall of Syria and the departure of the Russians from Syria the next target of the supporters of expanding "Peace and Democracy" will be Iran, with its nuclear program. After that, the entire region, including the countries of the South Caucasus, will plunge into chaos which only American strategists dare to characterize as a managed one.
Based on the above, today the South Caucasus countries should combine their efforts and support Moscow's efforts aimed at peace in the region. The war in Syria, and in particular in Iran, would mean millions of refugees and economic devastation in the region and all the other "delights" that the Americans have brought to Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan. For Georgia, which has frozen, unsolved conflicts with Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and for Armenia and Azerbaijan with their frozen Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a war on their borders could lead to really unpredictable consequences. Today no one can predict how, for example, the Azeris living in northern Iran will behave in this case, if they will migrate to Azerbaijan or Armenia or prefer the contested Nagorno-Karabakh...
In order to determine their foreign policy priorities, the countries of the Caucasus should just recall August 2008, when after a five-day war Georgia was brought into a state of time pressure, and Armenia and Azerbaijan have suffered losses of hundreds of millions of dollars. Again, all this was the result of essentially a small local war resulting from aggression against the small Ossetian people. It is quite easy to understand what will happen to Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia in case of further escalation of the aggression around Syria and Iran. That is why all three South Caucasus countries, which are all quite vulnerable, are interested in maintaining at least relative peace and stability in the region. And now this peace and stability can be guaranteed only by Russia, of course, with the support of China and member countries of the Collective Security Treaty. The U.S. is very far from the South Caucasus, both geographically and mentally, to be seriously interested in the destiny of the peoples living in this small region at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. And Russia, which always supported our people, now needs at least small support in the implementation of its plans for peace-keeping and relative stability in the region more than ever.
