Yesterday Russian and Armenian political scientists expressed their views on new Middle East realities during the video bridge Moscow-Yerevan “Challenges for Moscow and Yerevan.”
Vladimir Sazhin, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that “the situation in Egypt is unstable and the prospects are unclear. I would like to say that although the military retreated a little, it does not mean that they have given up their positions completely and I do not think they will do it until the very last moment. Egypt forms something like a double power. One needs to take into account external factors, because Egypt is not isolated. There is a strong influence of the US and Israel. We know that during the time of the revolutionary troubles Egypt lost a lot of money, it has a big currency deficit and an economic crisis. I do not think that it can restore its pre-revolutionary levels without external aid. From where can it expect aid? Of course, Saudi Arabia can help. However, the main help traditionally comes from the US. The role of the US is not only in economic help, but also in the supervision of internal policy. I would not mention Israel.
The statements made by the Iranian Information Agency are a provocation. As far as I know, the president of Egypt even wants to sue them. Why was it done? Iranian-Egyptian relations have been discussed for a long time now, even under Mubarak. There were some developments and retreats. It is very difficult to talk about close relations between Iran and Egypt. I think it will not happen in the near future. They can restore economic or diplomatic relations, although this requires time, but there can be no close alliance like between Iran and Syria.”
According to Ruben Safrastyan, Institute of Oriental Studies, Armenian Academy of Sciences, “Egypt is at the start of a new road, but the main landmarks of this road are still unclear. We can state that the new president is trying to find a consensus with the highest military officials. I agree with Professor Sazhin that an external factor should be taken into account. External factor means the US that provides big military support for this country - more than a billion dollars a year- and there is information that President Morsi would not interfere in a military budget that guarantees the free flow of American aid to the military leadership, sometimes staying in their pockets. It means that the US can influence the political situation in Egypt. As a specialist on Turkey, I can stay that Egypt could try to follow the Turkish way. We see that in Turkey the power is gradually passing from the military to the civilian government. We can assume that Egypt would follow the same road.”
Alexander Iskandaryan, political scientist, Director of the Institute of the Caucasus, thinks that “the introduction of elements of democratic choice inevitably involved a certain element of Islamism and political change, we see it already in Egypt. I am particularly interested in how relations between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis will develop. Speaking from Yerevan, I can say that Egypt seems far away from us, beyond Syria and Israel. The situation there is unstable, but Syria can only envy it. Syria has everything ahead. The situation there is very difficult and I am afraid that the possibility of consensus between the different sides of the Syrian conflict is almost impossible. Syria is difficult to compare even with Libya. Libya is also broken and as a result of democratization it just fell into three pieces. In Syria this process doesn't follow a geographic line, with the exception of the Kurdish part, but the streets of every village and town. And when the current riots that are already on the verge of the civil war become more serious, it is difficult to say what will happen to the Alawis, who now compose about 15% of the population, what will happen to the Christians, or whether the authorities will be able to control the situation in some way. I do not know when it will happen – this July or next year – but it is a fact that there is a big threat. When it happens, God forbid, it will be a true humanitarian catastrophe, and not in the metaphorical but the literal sense. This is very important for Armenia. Already thousands of ethnic Armenians, citizens of Syria, have arrived in Armenia asking for citizenship. As I read in the press, last year there were about 3000 of them and in this half year already about 2000. These are only those who asked for citizenship, while some just come or ask for a residence permit. The Syrian factor already plays a role in the housing market. People coming from Syria have started buying apartments. The Armenian community there consists of about 50-60 thousand, which is quite big for a country like ours.
Secondly, Syria is a key country for its region. What happens in Syria is connected to the role of Turkey and Iran in the region. Northern Iran, the Kurds and everything connected to them. The reformatting of this big region – from Tunisia to Iran and the smaller region close to our borders – has a big meaning for our country and Russia. Armenia cannot influence anything, but there is an acute necessity to adapt to the new reality that is changing very rapidly and we can see the concerns, if not of the wider public, but at least among the professional community.”
Alexander Ignatenko, Institute of Politics and Religion, Member of the presidential council for interaction with religious organizations, noted that “the events in Syria, the conflict, the war between the two regional powers – Saudi Arabia and Iran. The events in Syria are connected to this contradiction. It should be mentioned also that the conflict was initiated by Saudi Arabia. I do not mention Shia, Sunni, Alawi, everybody understands it. Saudi Arabia and Iran cannot resolve it by themselves, therefore they attract other forces – Saudi Arabia to a greater degree, Iran to a lesser degree, because it is a big military force unlike Saudi Arabia The ideal option for them will be if at this site Russia, or better Russia and China on one side, will face up to the US and NATO. The events in Egypt were also greatly influenced by the Arabic monarchies, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. It is an established fact that Qatar supported the Muslim Brotherhood, Saudi Arabia supported andsupports the Salafis. The fact that the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis took so many places in the parliament is a clear result of external support. By the way, Saudi Arabia is ready to provide support to Egypt, much more than the US, but of course on their conditions. They are observing the situation in Egypt and influencing it, but aren't giving money so far.”
