The US State Secretary's visit to the South Caucasus will start in Azerbaijan on July 3. After this Hillary Clinton will pay a visit to Armenia and later to Georgia.
The visit of the US official will be held in very complicated circumstances and difficult times. The recent statements of the Russian president and US officials confirmed the view of most of political experts that there are no signs of changes in Russian-Georgian relations. It is doubtful that the visit of Mrs. Clinton will bring dramatic changes in the diplomatic landscape.
Russia still doesn't consider Saakashvili a partner. The US on its part supports the Georgian leader but within limits which Obama's administration is not eager to cross. What are these limits? Apparently, somewhere in between words and deeds.
It became quite obvious that the US would not fight for Georgian interests in 2008, and diplomatic support since then has become restrained. Nowadays even this strategy is experiencing changes to the background of the US-Russian relations "reset". As O. Mathews points out: "In fact, Washington has admitted Russia's occupation of the Georgian territories, the US's best friend in the post-Soviet area." Indeed, the intensity of the dialogue between Moscow and Washington shows there is nothing that can affect the US-Russian rapprochement.
It seems that the so-called "reset" of US-Russian relations worries Mikhail Saakashvili and his team in terms of the future of US-Georgian dialogue. Meanwhile it doesn't mean that Obama is ready to sacrifice Saakashvili. No, these cards have not been played yet. Saakashvili uses the "blessing" of Washington for self-promotion and strengthening of his position in the political arena. The there is no way out of the dead-end in which the country found itself, since eachside will maintain its positions. Unfortunately, there are no possible compromises on South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
The problems of Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan are more worrying for the US president. Nowadays Tbilisi is not a top-priority issue for Washington, but Obama can't drop Saakashvili. Nothing can substitute him in the South Caucasus region and the entire post-Soviet area, what means political manoeuvres are continuing.
Aleksei Vlasov. Exclusively for VK.
