Ivanishvili’s ultimatum

by Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively for VK

The political struggle in Georgia reached a new level last week. Party lists were presented for the parliamentary polls of October 1, introducing members of the United National Movement of President Mikheil Saakashvili and Georgian Dream of Bidzina Ivanishvili.

The parties have the top ten of figures capable of achieving victory. They represent the political force and give an image of priorities of the leader and his political course. Georgian parliamentary polls are held using the mixture of the majority and proportional systems. Two thirds of the MPs for the 150-seat parliament are elected proportionally and one third in majority districts, coinciding with districts of the country. The first name in the party list becomes the representative of the party and the coalition. Billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili refused to top the list and vote as a protest for being deprived of Georgian citizenship, although the parliament passed a special constitutional amendment allowing a citizen of any EU member to run for parliament or to become the prime minister or president. Bidzina Ivanishvili received French citizenship in 2009, thus losing his Georgian citizenship because Georgian legislature does not recognize dual citizenship.

The billionaire said that he would become the prime minister if he wins the elections. He does not need membership in the parliament for that. Former football player for Milan FC is surprisingly topping the list. He quit captainship in the Georgian national team last year as a protest against the policy of Mikheil Saakashvili.

Being number one in the top of the party list means running for prime minister, according to the local tradition. But Bidzina Ivanishvili said at a presentation that “Kakha had no problems” and the decision is a result of “high authority of Kaladze in the public”. Indeed, the fullback for Milan FC and holder of the Champions’ Cup is very popular among football fans, especially teenagers. Doubtlessly, football in Georgia is more than a game, but a fan is one thing, while a voter is a different thing. A voter has different motivation and makes decisions independently from sport.

Politician Kakha Kaladze has never been popular in ratings of social polling agencies. His figure is more ambiguous on the background of prominent politicians leading their parties: Irakly Alasania of Free Democrats, David Usupashvili of the republicans, Zviad Dzidzguri of the conservatives, founders of the Party of People, manufacturers, greens, social democrats and others. Kalandadze seems strange in such a light.

Whether the choice was right or wrong will be clear in the future, but the story around Kaladze touches upon the main problem of Bidzina Ivanishvili and his party list: he is too eclectic. He tried to rally politicians of a wide range of views, values, background and orientation; leftists and rightists, Euro-Atlanticists and Eurasians.

Leaders of the Georgian Dream cannot find common grounds on the form of government: Alasania wants a presidential republic, republicans want a parliamentary republic of a European type. Ivanishvili does not dear it. He says that a referendum would resolve everything after the victory over the UNM. But such diversity shocks voters, people who want stability and speak against any turmoil threatening serenity, bank accounts of status of middle class. About 25-30% of voters belong to this category and have great influence on victory of the two teams.

The electoral lists of the UNM are very predictable, clear, lack coalitions, multicolority and pluralism. The movement is united, monolithic, consisting of reliable members supporting the president. The list is headed by Speaker of Parliament David Bakradze who will most likely keep the position if the nationals win, unless he runs for president.

In other words, the list of Ivanishvili in the eyes of mass voters is like a two birds in the bush, while the list of Saakashvili is like a bird in the hand. People voting for the UNM list know what the party will be doing next for sure, while voters for the Georgian Dream will have many doubts. There is a risk of disputes between people who used to be allies and a loss of stability achieved after the war in 2008.

A publicist compared Ivanishvili’s list with Schindler’s List. The Georgian businessmen is not saving Jews from Nazi concentration camps, he is saving Georgian political subjects from “death”. The rating of most of them was hardly beyond 5%.

But there is another point of view: if Ivanishvili is forming the headquarters of his future resolution rather than the electoral list, his crew should be diverse, consisting of a wide range of politicians using the “people’s front” principle. This is what scares the government. Speaker of the UNM Chiora Taktakishvili said: “Ivanishvili is not preparing for elections, he is preparing for a resolution at the excuse of falsification of vote results”.

Ivanishvili has demanded affiliated structures to lift financial sanctions imposed at the excuse of violations of electoral laws and the day of vote to be shifted to a weekend after October 1 (Monday) so that voters in Russia and other states could give their votes. The government declined the initiatives. They seem to be ready for a hard struggle too.