Pyotr Lukimson, Israel. Exclusive to VK
The officials of Israel are concerned with approaching Turkey and Egypt; at the same time they think that one day the premier Erdogan will have no choice but to soften his position and normalize relations with Israel.
The military and political circles of Israel followed the full-scaled joint war games of Egyptian and Turkish Naval Forces “Friendly Sea” attentively. It is obvious that Egypt which controls the Suez Channel and Turkey which controls Bosporus could unite and block Russia’s way to Syria. However, Israel is even more concerned about the possible breaking of the Gaza blockade under the security of Egyptian and Turkish military ships. If it happens, the region will have a completely new situation which will change the balance of forces between the East and the West.
However, this scenario is considered to be unlikely by Israeli analysts. They believe that two Muslim states approach not for improving confrontation with Israel. The new president of Egypt Mursi needs money and new friends who would give him money. Recently Mursi has requested the INF for a %5 billion credit to Egypt, but the experts demanded changing of subsidiary policy for that. Therefore, prices for all goods would boost in this case, and Mursi decided to address to Turkey which gave $1 billion to Egypt at once.
It seems Mursi plans to build Egypt’s future on the current Turkish model and it encourages close relations between two countries. At the same time, Turkey also needs allies as its relations with Iran and Russia worsened because of the situation in Syria. It seemed Ankara could rely on the US and Europe, but it has not got their support.
Furthermore, analysts note that the Turkish economy which has been successfully developing in recent years has begun to slow down. Inflation is growing and next year the Turks (as well as the Israelis) will spend much less than this year. It is understandable: the economic crisis in Europe led to the fact that the West reduced import of Turkish (and Israeli) goods.
The prime minister Erdogan and other Turkish officials are concerned about further development in Syria which might cause appearance of the second Kurdish state in its territory (the first de facto exists in Iraq) and also the capturing of the mass destruction armaments by these or those forces in Syria.
It is interesting to note that the leading Israeli observers and governmental analysts appreciate Erdogan’s steps, who provides smart and balanced policy trying to fulfill his country’s interests, treaties with NATO and preventing Turkey from involvement in a war, according to them. The political circles of Israel understood Turkey’s activities toward Russian and Armenian aircrafts and nobody doubted in their legality.
