Author: VK
The CIS summit transferred to a later date will be held on December 5, the chairman of the Executive Committee of the Commonwealth Sergei Lebedev said after talks with President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov. The heads of state are going to discuss about 20 draft documents aimed at deepening regional cooperation in the economic, humanitarian and security fields. Meanwhile, the expert opinions on the prospects of the Commonwealth do not always coincide.
Speaking of under-utilized potential of the organization, the executive director of Blazer’s International Fund Oleg Ustenko said that "there were a number of reasons. After getting independence, everyone tried to go his own way. Suddenly, in one moment there was the realization that we could do more together, but it was not clear how to do it together. At least the countries taking part in a discussion in the CIS are already quite different. There is a certain similarity, but the countries are different.
The largest economy in the CIS is the Russian Federation: its GDP is 2 trillion dollars, at least according to the forecast of this year by the major part of economic experts involved in the field of the CIS activities. This is far more than the GDP of all other countries. For example, Ukraine's GDP is 10 times less, amounting to 180 billion dollars. Moldova's GDP is a few hundred times less and amounts to $ 7 billion. Armenia's GDP, again, is hundreds of times less, $ 10 billion; Azerbaijan’s GDP is also a few times less - $ 70 billion. Kazakhstan's GDP is $ 200 billion. The largest economy, of course, is interested in expanding the integration connections.
CIS economies differ in structure. Ukraine, Moldova and Armenia are of the type of economies not producing energy. Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are specific economies, generating energy that is being actively exported. Some countries produce and extract oil and gas, while others do not get it, so the macro-economic situation in these regions is quite different.
Countries that produce oil tend to have a better macroeconomic environment, lower budget deficits, are prospects for a sustainable economic development. Kazakhstan shows one of the highest growth rates. Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia show lower growth rates.
The countries also differ by the degree of dependence on external creditors - it is more for Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, and less for Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia.
But there are common problems. They lie in the field of the development of underutilized capacity. The first important step is signing free trade agreements within the CIS. Different parties of the negotiation process and those who are planning to join in the future to this agreement differently perceive it.
We have a lot of opportunities for the common development of agriculture, and there is an active discussion about this both in Russia and in Ukraine and Kazakhstan, because the three countries may be the world's largest player in the agricultural world.
There are various projects of developing engineering between Ukraine and Russia. There are some joint projects Russia - Kazakhstan. There are projects that are considered to bind Russia with each individual member country of the CIS. There are issues that can be viewed from the perspective of Ukraine. There are prospects for cooperation, but it is important to determine the ideology – first, the reasons for the necessity of this project, second, the profit from all this, and preferably in the most precise figures, in terms of economic benefit for each individual state, third, the social sphere, because so many economic processes are not made purely in the plane of economic decisions, the best economic solution is not always chosen, and these issues are solved in the political arena, and conceptual understanding of how it all is associated with the policy pursued by our state is quite important”.
Director of the Center for Strategic Studies and Reforms of Moldova Galina Shalar sees the reason for the under-utilization of the potential of the CIS in the fact that "each country tried to determine its path, and the declaration of possible joint projects and free trade covered what was in everyone's mind - the tool of a civilized divorce. The fact that today a new agreement on free trade in the post-Soviet space is signed means a turning point in big countries’ minds.
Largest economy, which, of course, without any ratings, is Russia, the central post-Soviet economy, should initiate the integration. The initial difference between our republics, including Russian absolute power even under difficult conditions of the early 1990s, just caused the disintegration processes in the post-Soviet space and neglecting economic opportunities, economic reintegration.
The most primitive capitalism and economic pragmatism got the victory. The vast majority of the CIS countries from rich Soviet republics overnight turned into small poor states. But large economies, in which energy is a serious product that is demanded anytime, anywhere, of course, prefer to export their products for the biggest price.
Why do we not ask the question of what we can contribute to some integration structure? It is the reason for our problems, and these problems are associated with both the eastern vector of integration, and the western vector".
"The situation in which the CIS was created in the early 1990s is not comparable to the situation that has developed today, with those challenges, geopolitical complex issues that arise in any post-Soviet republics”, Azerbaijani political scientist, Professor of Western University Fikret Sadikhov says. “The CIS was created to avoid the centrifugal trends which feared certain forces. With all the effort to unite these republics, with the visibility of an international organization, in fact, we could not do that. Each of the republics of the CIS has become more independent, more sovereign, with its own position, with its own priorities and views on many foreign policy and domestic issues. That is the paradox, in my opinion. That is, the CIS does not become either the Council of Europe or the European Union, even more so - the OSCE. However, there is very active cooperation in the economic, humanitarian and political spheres. Maybe these relations would be formed and developed without the CIS, and I doubt the fact that the CIS will be a strong regional organization. EurAsEC, Customs Union, the Union State of Russia and Belarus, the CSTO are created within the CIS. Each republic has its priorities in foreign policy, its position on many international issues".
