Author: Yekaterina Tesemnikova, Moscow, and David Stepanyan, Yerevan, exclusive to VK
Today, one of the main topics on the agenda of the Russian-Armenian relations is the discussion about the possibility of joining the Eurasian Union for Yerevan. And now the idea of the benefits of the Eurasian integration project compared to the CIS, which was, according to the characteristic of Vladimir Putin, the means of civilized divorce, is increasingly voiced. According to director of the Armenian branch of the CIS Institute Alexander Makarov, "when the CIS was created, there was the need to address a number of issues - on the one hand, the need to maintain the bonds that had already been established, on the other hand - the ability to support the economies, which were interdependent, and third - the desire to preserve a certain civilization, a common space, which was created not only in the Soviet period, but before". Speaking about the reasons why the CIS had failed to become a successful integration project, Makarov said that "this is a sharp decline in the level of the economy, the level of GDP in each of the countries, the presence of internal instability and external conflicts, and, in the case of Armenia, closed borders. Accordingly, the integration project, which functioned in different directions or at different vectors, was at the level of some declarative statements for a long time. Nowadays the core elements are those that are economic in nature and that can lead to real tangible results, including from the point of view of economic growth and the impact on the socio-economic situation in the country. Integration process will go with great success in the presence of a specific core filling, which can positively influence, in particular, the economic cooperation and the level of economic development. If similar elements of economic integration able to lead to the growth of macroeconomic indicators which, accordingly, may later lead to a positive impact on the overall economic situation in each country are found, the economic component will be able to become the basis for further political integration project".
It is the dominant economic component that makes experts talk about the prospects of a Eurasian Union. However, the question of participation of Armenia in it is still open. Yerevan watches the new integration initiative of Russia with great care, which sometimes causes confusion in Moscow. Thus, the Russian political analyst Mikhail Leontyev said that Armenia had been created in its present form only thanks to Russia and continued to exist due to it. "Total dependence on Russian gas and Russian transfers", which has been criticized by experts from the IMF, not to mention the power umbrella, is a direct illustration to this", Leontiev said. According to him, "Armenia undertook highly regarded efforts to liberalize the economy and attract foreign investment. However, there has been no investment boom, and it is not expected. Even the powerful diaspora around the world, including in Europe and the U.S., not much helped to lift the Armenian economy. It rather facilitated the exodus of Armenians from the country. Against this background, it is strange to hear nonsense from Armenia about the "European choice" and a stark warning of the German ambassador about the threat to this choice in the case of Armenia's participation in the Eurasian integration project. In fact, Armenian opposition to reintegration is the best illustration to the lameness of post-Soviet elites doomed to confront the real national interests of their people. Armenia should be interested in this process more than Russia, because an alternative for it is not the "European choice" but the "Turkish choice”.
However, it should be recognized that the possibility of a real integration with Russia has always been imperative for Armenia. Armenian society is sympathetic to the Russian-proposed integration initiatives in the former Soviet space. A special role in this is played by a deep and multilayered nature of Russian-Armenian historical, civilizational and cultural ties. Even critics have to admit that, according to opinion polls, the vast majority of the population of Armenia is committed to the development of relations with Russia and supports the integration trends. All this combined with the historical memory of the Armenians gives hope that the society in Armenia respectfully treats Russia's initiative to develop the Eurasian cooperation not only in the economic sphere. The question is the terms. In general, both Russia and Europe, and the United States, and any other country in the world, always and everywhere, above all, pursues its own interests. And that's OK. So before the Armenians think about the integration, they need to think about their own interests. But in order to do it seriously and on the basis of pragmatism they should try to answer a simple question: who needs whom more: Russia needs Armenia, or Armenia needs Russia?
In Armenia, the northern ally is accused of establishing closer ties with Baku, neglecting allied relations with Armenia, arms supplies to Azerbaijan, desire to make friends with Turkey through concessions, which in turn will be made at the expense of Armenia. Yerevan believes that Moscow does not appreciate the fact that Armenia has long been its ally in the South Caucasus. The reluctance to compensate for costs and losses incurred by Armenia refusing to go to the West in favor of Russia is also not approved, as well as the unwillingness to write off foreign debt, as it was done, for example, with respect to Kyrgyzstan, and to reduce the price of gas for its most loyal ally.
In turn, Moscow accuses Armenia of its total dependence on Russian transfers, and Mikhail Leontyev wonders what would happen to the economy of Armenia, if the price of gas had been the same as the price for Lithuania and Germany. Moscow reminds Yerevan of the Russian security umbrella covering Armenia surrounded by Turkey and Azerbaijan, and of the blockade, of the fact that without Russian partnership the economic situation of the republic would have been very disappointing. Finally, the Armenian leadership is accused of unwillingness to join the most ambitious project of Vladimir Putin, the Eurasian Union and the Customs Union.
Note that all this time Armenia has been bought Russian gas at a reduced price; however, the republic paid for these prices by selling national gas transmission system and the 5th block of Hrazdan thermal power plant to the Russians at the same reduced price. A huge role in bilateral economic relations is played by Russian loans and, transfer payments by Armenian citizens living in Russia. By the way, Armenian government now is said to ask Russia for a new, this time billion loan. Finally, there is military cooperation, in which, above all, Armenia is interested (for Armenia, this area is the most important one in our relationship, given that Azerbaijan today is the undisputed champion in the CIS for the purchase of weapons). Moscow has already supplied to Yerevan latest S-300, replacing outdated S-125. Meanwhile, Russian military bases remain in Armenia, and in case of need this fact will significantly facilitate arms supplies.
As you can see, the evidence is in favor of the Eurasian integration of Armenia. However, the vagueness of the position of the official Yerevan concerning the idea of a Eurasian Union is reasonable. And the reason is not the pressure of the West and not even the hope of receiving 1.5 billion euros in Europe, allegedly promised in case of irreversible movement of Armenia on the path of "strengthening democracy." In fact, the government of Sargsyan expects from Moscow guarantees of substantial financial, economic and political support till the presidential elections, including gas prices acceptable for Armenia. Former President Robert Kocharian enjoyed such Moscow's support, no matter what the price for it was. Thus, it seems that Yerevan will specify its position on the Eurasian Union only when it receives an appropriate message from Moscow, which has not yet been received. Probably Moscow, in turn, expects Yerevan to first declare its desire to join the Eurasian Union. However, given that, without getting anything in return, Armenia will hardly dare to go to the break with the EU against the approaching completion of negotiations on visa facilitation and free trade zone with the European Union, Moscow is waiting in vain. And Yerevan, of course, can give up the only real level of European integration in the case of Armenia and other CIS countries, but only for the respective concessions by Moscow.
Persuading Armenia to participate in the Russian integration project is certainly possible, but only by applying the so-called "soft power", popularizing and economically justifying the benefits of carrying out the idea of Eurasian Union.
