Vitaly Naumkin, PhD (History), Professor, the RAS member, the head of the Oriental Studies Institute of the RAS, gave an interview to Vestnik Kavkaza on the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Iranian nuclear program, and Russian-Turkish relations.
- How would you characterize the current Iranian problem?
- The situation over Iran is very tense. These days there are many new attacks on Iran, many new accusations. The last is connected with the developments in Gaza, when the West and Israel accused Iran of supplying missile armament to Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the organizations which act in Gaza. Therefore, a new paradigm appeared,especially among Israeli Hawks, that a strike should be launched at Iran for calming the situation in Palestine. It is obvious that the atmosphere becomes tense, on the one hand. On the other hand, America urges to a dialogue between Americans and Iranians. I believe these two positions create a balance and mean that the United States do not want this military operation and try to build a bridge, which is beneficial for the Iranian authorities. On the other hand, it is clear that the Iranian authorities won't reject the nuclear program which they present as a peaceful one. They do not recognize any accusations against Iran of establishing nuclear armament. They will most probably continue the program. That is why the international course toward the Iranian nuclear program which is provided today has to be corrected. The complexity of the situation is that tension is obvious, but at the same time there is a hope for settlement of the crisis by diplomatic means. At least we know there are many people in Israel who want to launch a strike, but they will hardly do it alone.
- What do you think about prospects of the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement?
- I am not a big optimist on prospects of the Karabakh settlement. The countries have been conducting talks for a long time, but we see no result. Each side stands on its own. It is very difficult to find a decision. All initiatives by the Minsk Group face rejection of this or that side. The process is in hands of presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan who meet from time to time. There is information on some initiatives and possible staged settlement. But I believe it is not time for this yet.
- What is your view on Russian-Turkish relations in the context of the Syrian problem and difference in views on it?
- I am sure that serious contradictions on the Syrian problem will not damage Russian-Turkish relations, as they are based on very powerful similarity of economic interests, on the fact that Turkey and Russia are very important economic partners to each other. We have strong humanitarian ties, as Turkey is a Turk country, and we have many Turk ethnic groups. Almost 4 million Russian tourists visit Turkey annually; many Turkish companies are working in Russia; and until the Syrian crisis we had no serious political contradictions. I think despite these contradictions, Russian-Turkish relations won't be hurt. Each side is interested in maintenance of the favorable situation and its further development.
