One step to a breakthrough?

Kazakh political experts are skeptical about the ability of Astana to be an effective mediator in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement. Such a conclusion was made from analysis of an interview with one of the most informed and authoritative Kazakh experts, Dosym Satpayev, which can be found at the Trend information agency.

The reason for this skepticism is that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been influenced by various factors for 16 years. One or another mediating country has offered its own format of settlement, and determined the “efficient” approach to the issue. And those efforts failed each time.

The reasons for these failures are obvious. The moderators of the conflict tried to use the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to strengthen their own positions in the region, which is a mistake from the very start. But most importantly, Baku and Yerevan were reluctant for a long time to take a step towards each other. Vladimir Putin was fair, saying everything was in the hands of the conflicting countries from the very beginning.

Dosym Satpayev is right that sitting on two chairs, trying to reconcile Baku and Yerevan, will be impossible even for such a master of diplomacy as Kanat Saudabayev. In any case, someone has to concede. And now the Azerbaijani territories around Nagorno-Karabakh will be returned. The problem is not that Kazakh efforts are pointless. On the contrary, the efforts of Astana are welcomed, but the problem is that any projects that have no potential for a quick realization can be viewed by the participants of the negotiation process with annoyance.


Kazakhstan offers its territory as a platform for another round of negotiations. It is definitely an event that fits into the context of the active face of Kazakhstan’s chairmanship of the OSCE. But it is now matters of the eventual result. On July 13, Azerbaijani President Ilkham Aliyev made a harsh speech, where it is clearly seen that Nagorno-Karabakh will never cease to be an Azerbaijani territory. Any attempts to ignore the position of the Azerbaijani people will lead to the collapse of the negotiation process.

Serzh Sargsyan took a strong position as well, pressurized by the Stepanaket and the Armenian communities. The result of the negotiations will be determined by real decisions that will give a push to the stalemate. If the participants of the meeting limit themselves to more comments on “a serious breakthrough“, it will be in no other way considered than a good mime in a bad game.

Alexey Vlasov. Exclusively for VK