If you want peace…

Yeugeny Nikolaichuk exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza

The situation on the contact line of the Armenian and Azerbaijani troops in Nagorno-Karabakh is rather tense – fire-fights and incidents are a common thing. “If you want peace, be prepared for a war” – the proverb is acute for the Caucasus region. Even though political analysts are sure that the next “battlefield” in the planet is the Middle East where the maximum amount of armament is focused, according to the GMI 2012, the region of the Caucasus remains as much explosive as the Middle East.

The main reason for tension escalation is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict which cannot be settled either by Moscow or Washington or Brussels. Despite all efforts of the international society to settle the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh and 20 per cent of Azerbaijani territories which were occupied by Armenia by peaceful means, Armenia doesn’t want any progress in the negotiating person. None of the sides is interested in leaving the problem unsettled in the long-term perspective. President of Armenia Serge Sargsyan understands it, seeking reelection. “It is not pleasant to live under constant threat of a war. The fastest settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem will positively influence development of Armenia. Closed contacts prevented full-scaled development of the country’s economy,” he has stated recently in an interview to the radio Svoboda, but added that there would be no document on settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the near future.

The other problem following the conflict is a necessity to maintain a very big army. “We have to maintain an army which doesn’t match with the territory of our country. It also doesn’t match with the territory of our country by its combat values and armament. But we have to have an efficient army with modern armament, and its size should be as big as demanded for solving strategic tasks,” Sargsyan said.

However, this situation cannot remain forever. Today it is beneficial for a small group of people who rule the “party of war,” the Karabakh clans of Kocharyan and Sargsyan who came to power due to blood of Azerbaijani and Armenian people. Gradually they monopolized the Armenian economy and forced it into international isolation. Permanent statement on military provocations and a possible military variant of the conflict settlement enable the authorities to control the population who is tired of promises and lives at the edge of poverty.

Azerbaijan significantly surpassed Armenia in the sphere of force development. On December 24, 2012, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev stated at the ceremony of opening the house for disabled veterans of the Karabakh war in Sumgait: “The main question which our country has faced is settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Unfortunately, this problem hasn’t been solved yet.” Decisions and resolutions of international organizations, including four resolutions of the UN Security Council, which demand withdrawing Armenian occupation troops from the Azerbaijani territory are ignored by Yerevan. “The time will come and Azerbaijan will restore its territorial integrity by any means. Either historic justice or norms of the international law admit our right for this,” the head of Azerbaijan said.

The open military conflict on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border can have catastrophic consequences, and both sides of the conflict understand it. The situation is worsened by the fact that the region is experienced heavy destabilization. The situation tends to worsen. Azerbaijan has strong allies in the region. Turkey can support Azerbaijan, and not only politically or morally. Israel supports Baku too.

Russia has the 102nd military base in Armenia, which will exist till 2044 or probably further. Despite the fact it is tired of supporting the Armenian economy and satisfying infinite financial demands of the country, the war could force Russia to interfere as security of its citizens and political interests of Armenia might be concerned.

Azerbaijan is strengthening its military power, but it is one of the stages of statehood establishing. Unlike Armenia, this process is planned and development of the Military Forces of the young republic undergoes in the context of the economic growth of the country. To sleep well, you should keep powder dry.