Author: Susanna Petrosian, Yerevan, exclusively to VK
In late January Yerevan hosted several events aimed at developing the information space of the Eurasian project. The organizers of the program, including the opening of the school of journalistic skills, presentation of the Center for Political Studies "North-South", a round table "Eurasian humanitarian and information space - new windows of opportunities" and a video conference between Yerevan and Moscow on the Eurasian project for the South Caucasus, were the Center "North -South" and RIA Novosti.
"Over the last two years we see the clearly defined task of the Russian leadership: building new lines of communication, not only in areas of the economy, security, addressing issues related to mutual trade, but also in a broader humanitarian sense. The main tools of informational, humanitarian and socio-cultural communications are not only our humanitarian holdings - "Russian World" and "Rossotrudnichestvo"; no less important a role is played by the non-governmental sector," the executive director of the Center "North-South", editor-in-chief of VK Alexei Vlasov said at the opening of the School. He noted that representatives of the media should become kinds of communicators in the dialogue that must exist not only through top government officials of Russia and Armenia, but, first and foremost, in their civil societies.
Addressing the theme of the Eurasian project, Vlasov was right to note that in Yerevan there is a lack of information about why Armenia needs the Eurasian project, what the interest of the Armenian state in terms of interaction not only with Russia but multilaterally is, because Eurasian integration modules, the Customs Union (TC) and the Common Economic Space also include Kazakhstan and Belarus, with which Armenia does not have such close relations as with Russia.
Yerevan's position
In Armenia, both at the management level and at the level of experts, and in society as a whole, there is a certain amount of distrust of and pessimism about the Eurasian economic project. Another thing is security issues - in this area there is a full understanding of the role of Russia as well as the role of the CSTO in the security of Armenia. "It is not clear what else Russia wants, given the existence of the CIS, the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Customs Union", political scientist Igor Muradian says. The Eurasian Union (EAU) is perceived as some part of the electoral slogan of President Putin. And the politicians and experts who point to the need for Armenia's accession to the Customs Union and the EAC have not given a comprehensive explanation of it and have limited themselves to appeals and slogans. "Creating the EAC is the call of the times, for only by combining the resources and capabilities of the CIS can we be competitive and face the challenges of the millennium. It is impossible to delay the creation of the Eurasian Union," the head of the Democratic Party of Armenia, Aram Sargsyan, says. Even less specific thoughts were expressed by another supporter of the EAC - political analyst Sergei Shakaryants, who believes that the creation of the Eurasian Union is aimed not at 5 or 20 years, but it is an eternal single space, which should give a new impetus to the development of the entire Eurasian continent.
Ideology
Armenia and Russia have serious economic ties, but ideology, or rather its absence, is a key problem for the perception of the idea of EAU. "On what ideology will we build the Eurasian integration project? This question is number one. The absence of these common values creates certain tension. We do not fully understand each other either at the level of civil society or at the level of political elites," Vlasov says.
It is a mistake to assume that the intention of Armenia to work closely with the European Union is due only to economic interests. The EU is a particularly civilizational alliance, including a union of Christian peoples. While the economies of most of the EU countries are considered liberal and competitive, in fact the idea of the EU is, ironically, a socialist idea and aims to align the level of development and life of those who live in this area. Incorporating ideas have also always been present in the FSU.
In the ideology of imperial Russia the Orthodox element has always occupied a special place. In addition, not always and not all territories were annexed to the Russian Empire by force. Tsarist Russia supported the Christian nations living on the periphery and the
Muslim people, who for whatever reason did not want to be part of the
neighboring Islamic empires, in particular, the Persian Empire and the Ottoman Empire. It was quite an interesting state with no direct division into nations, but it was said that the Tsar has good and bad subjects. At the heart of the Soviet Union there is the ideology of communism. Of course, this is not the best idea, but still it has become unifying and managed to unite all the peoples of the former USSR, which in any case somehow agreed to build communism.
In the case of the EAC there is no such idea. There are some works of Russian scientists, which, however, are mostly geopolitical, but the philosophy of the project still remains unclear. The problems associated with today's Russia are added to this uncertainty. Armenians perceive Russia as a friendly and allied state, consider themselves close to Russian culture, and in Russia there are still many migrants who send money earned to their relatives in Armenia. At any level in Armenia there are no scathing attacks against Russia. On the other hand, looking from Yerevan, there is an impression that Moscow itself clearly does not know what kind of society it wants to build.
Kaliningrad region or sovereign Armenia?
The statements and actions of some Russian officials do not always correspond to what the Russian leaders say. In his article on the Eurasian Union, Putin says that the union will not be something like the USSR. Meanwhile, the chairman of the board of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), Viktor Khristenko, speaking about the fact that Armenia has no common border with the countries of the Customs Union, says that Armenia may become an enclave of the Customs Union, following the example of the Kaliningrad region. If Khristenko had said that any customs unions in the world have an experience of the inclusion of states whose boundaries are not contiguous with the boundaries of any customs unions, in Armenia this would be considered normal. But in this case, Yerevan perceived Khristenko's phrase as an attempt to make Armenia the Kaliningrad region, like another attempt to restore the Soviet Union. Similar statements on the country, which became independent 20 years ago, are not correlated with the severe and cumbersome ideas of the EAC, and reckless statements by some Russian officials undermine confidence in the President of Russia and in his statements.
Regimes in the post-Soviet space and their interests
It is somewhat difficult to imagine the implementation of the Eurasian project in the post-Soviet space. Most of the regimes in this area are related not to the national but to the comprador bourgeoisie. That is, the interests of the propertied classes are often not at home but with their money - in the West.
Sad for Armenia, but true
Experts have criticized the project of the EAC, including the fact that it does not provide specific answers to many questions, including those related to conflicts. However, almost all of them are of the same opinion that the Customs Union is a specific and clear program, which promises high profits to be obtained. But there is a bleak reality in Armenia - this is an old industry, associated by thousands of threads with Russia and other post-Soviet countries and destroyed over the past 20 years. Another bleak reality is that in Armenia today there is only a small range of products. Imports exceed exports. Of course, all of this should concern the Armenian government, as well as the question about what Armenia will supply to the markets of the Customs Union. In fact, Armenia is interested in developing closer economic relations with Russia and Ukraine (less with Belarus, the price of its goods is high due to logistics), and all this can be done on the basis of bilateral ties with Russia and Ukraine.
The Customs Union and the Karabakh issue
In order to join the EU, a country must resolve the problems with all its neighbors. In the case of the EAC it is not clear how Armenia can join it without settling the Karabakh conflict. "If the question of joining the CU and the EAC will be set before Yerevan, Armenia should seriously consider this multi-faceted problem and raise a complex issue, where the cornerstone will be the status of Nagorno-Karabakh in the Customs Union," the head of the parliamentary faction of the "Heritage" party Ruben Hakobyan said. According to a member of the parliamentary faction of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, Chairman of the Standing Committee on Financial-Credit and Budgetary Affairs Gagik Minasyan, in order to address the issue of Armenia's accession to the CU, a commission working on identifying the features that will allow Armenia to join the CU should be created. "It's about the fact that the NKR economy is fully integrated into the economy of Armenia. If it comes to joining the CU, then the question is if the NKR will be a member of this structure, that is, if the members of the Customs Union agree," Minasyan says.
Factor of the "bubble"
Speaking of the EAC, some experts in Armenia recall the fate of the Russia-Belarus Union, which did not work out. Moreover, the Armenian expert and journalistic community blame Russia; in fact, in Armenia one million signatures for adherence to this position were collected.
Can Russia keep its word?
Yerevan also recalls the highly-unpopular Armenian-Russian intergovernmental agreement of 2002 "Property for Debt", when Russia obtained five Armenian enterprises of strategic importance for the Armenian state debt amounting to 108 million dollars. At the time Russian top officials assured their Armenian partners that investments will be made in the development of these companies and new jobs will be created. This did not happen, and the companies finally became obsolete after 10 years. It turns out that Russia could not technologically re-equip the Armenian companies or did not want to do this.
Both options are equally bad. Armenia is a small country, where such displays of either inaction or reckless attitude to promises are clearly recorded by the political and expert elite and the journalistic community. This seriously affected the reputation of Russia. If it has not fulfilled its promises in this project, it cannot be going to fulfil its assurances given in the framework of such a serious project as the EAC.
"Both... and" or "either... or"?
Recently, Russian politicians and experts have often expressed hints that Armenia should abandon its traditional policy of "both... and" and make a choice between the West and Russia, in this case - between the EU and the EAC. The major component of Armenia's foreign policy as a country in a very difficult geopolitical situation, the people of which have experienced a terrible tragedy - the genocide in the Ottoman Empire almost 100 years ago _ is complementarism, or simply the formula "both the West and Russia". The policies of little Armenia, which it has conducted since gaining independence in 1991, displeases all the world's major centers, including Moscow, Washington, Brussels and even neighboring Iran. Despite jealous claims that the resource of "sitting on the fence is exhausted" and Armenia has to self-determine, to date none of the three major world players have managed to force Armenia to reverse course. Armenia has not succumbed to pressure from Russia to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And Washington, which is discontented, as well as Moscow, by the policy of "sitting on the fence", has allowed the degree of interaction between Armenia and Iran which is present today. This is unbelievable, but true.
The influence of "the powers that be" is great but not unlimited. "Our country has some "red flags", and there are some limitations. In interaction with Russia this is the sphere of security, and no one will violate these rules - we are not crazy. On the other hand, we have other "red flags" - development following the model of the West. No one likes our policy, but everyone considers it, given the very complex geopolitical situation in Armenia," director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan says. Speaking about the choice between the EU and the EAC, MP Gagik Minasyan said that all three Armenian Presidents adhered to a middle ground: "Today the question is put in a very uncompromising form. Like in the past 20 years, in this issue there have been ebbs and flows, and we are now going through this phase. I do not share the view that the multi-vector policy has exhausted itself; in this case there is a question of choice."
What is more attractive: Russia, Europe, China or the oil war?
Russia is not considered an attractive country, comparable to Europe, in Armenia. Recently, an unknown man posted on Facebook a map of the world as perceived by Armenians, which demonstrates the assessment and attitude of Armenians to the countries of the world. Only the "powers that be", namely, the United States and Russia, have managed to avoid any comments. However, the United States was designated by the word "Los" which apparently refers to Los Angeles, home to one million Armenians. Africa is marked by "This is not a place to live." Map of Australia, apparently in view of natural disasters, says "Out of harm's way," Greenland - "There are no Armenians here", the Middle East is marked by a commentary - "Oil, war and fuss", South America - "Cocaine and other drugs - not to contact", but the whole of Europe is painted in the same color and says "Prestigious countries".
Should we blame the people for the fact that Europe is more attractive to them than Russia? But in order to draw attention to its projects or new associations, Russia should become an attractive country - moreover, not only in economic terms but also in other aspects, such as in terms of justice. If Russia will find its way and not just build a prosperous and successful society, but also support justice, it can be an integration center. Vladimir Putin has said that Russia should become a great energy power, but this concept is not strong enough to attract the Armenians.
