Author: VK
Last week, Venezuela said farewell to President Hugo Chavez. The funeral in Caracas was attended by 30 heads of state from around the world. Russia was represented by the president of "Rosneft" and head of the board of directors of Rosneftegaz Igor Sechin in the rank of special presidential representative, Director General of Russian Technologies Sergei Chemezov and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov. Experts believe that the Venezuelan leader has left a big advance in co-operation with Russia.
“The era of Chavez is not over. It is developing, because it is a turning point in the development of the region, a change in international relations, for example, with respect to the West and the East”, Marina Vasilyeva, chairman of the Russian Committee for Cooperation with Latin America, said. “Speaking after the adoption of the constitution in 1999, in its TV-broadcast "Alo Presidente," Chavez said: "I'm ready to remain president until 2013, and in 2013 I will be ready to hand over power to my successor." Back then, in 1999, few people realized that power was going to be handed over in such a way”.
“It is hard to remember when the death of a leader somewhere out there, across the ocean would stir the people in general and journalists here in Russia like that”, Oleg Panteleyev, first deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Regulations and Organization of Parliamentary Activity, said. “In fact, indeed the interest in this sad event is huge. There were also very controversial comments, because he was a very controversial figure. In fact, I want to say once again that we can say various things about Chavez: some say good things, some do not say anything, some do not say anything good, someone people are happy, some are sad, some people grieve, some people cry. But I want to say that we have 258 states, if I'm not mistaken, but I know that when numerous people die, it happens, we do not even know about it, we do not hear about it. But in this case, I am sure that Chavez will be remembered and will always be remembered - he has already entered the history of the world. I'm not even afraid to say here, because the country is really small, but he managed, perhaps due to his contradictory nature, to really oppose the powerful influence of the U.S. and earned the love of everyone. But he earned the love not only of Latin Americans, who historically do not like the Yankees and gringos. I want to say that in fact I personally was very sad about this event. Somehow I have associations with the turbulent events in the history of Latin America. For some reason already for the second day I've been hearing this song in my mind, "Comandante Che Guevara."
“He was a strong personality, very charismatic, he always emanated powerful energy. He was a great friend of Russia, it was obvious. I believe that Chavez's era has not ended, at least, it can continue, because Chavez is one of those politicians of great magnitude that even after their death continue to be a political factor, at least for Venezuela”, Mikhail Yemelyanov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, said. “In a few days the country will bury Chavez as a man, but will not bury Chavez as a politician, because it is clear that in the elections to be held, it was announced by Nicolas Maduro, in a month, Chavez will play an active role already after his death and will be a strong mobilizing force, stronger than he was even when he was alive. If Chavez' movement does not split, and its two main players, Nicolas Maduro and Cabello, two strong personalities, if they manage to find a common language between each other, I think that there is a great probability that their candidate will win in the next presidential elections. There is another issue: the Chavez' movement will be subject to revision. Of course, after some time it will start to disintegrate, but then again I think that the direction that Chavez has defined as the " Bolivarian movement" will last for a long time and will have an impact on the development of Venezuela as well as Latin America, because it has a clearly defined anti-comprador, anti-American character. The quintessence of this movement is the idea that the resources of the country are used in its own interests, in the interests of the country and are not given to the Yankees. This idea is popular in Latin America. I think that if you look at it from this perspective, Chavez will obviously live for a very long time.
From the point of view of Russian interests, certainly, we are interested in the future of this movement, it is the most pro-Russian one. The opposition, unfortunately, is, if not anti-Russian, not pro-Russian enough. The presidential candidate from the opposition, Henrique Capriles, said that after elections he would cancel all arms contracts with Russia, our oil contacts would also be revised, although that is harder to do. Therefore, we have precise clear interests related to Chavez and his successors. Certain people may like Chavez, some people may not, some are perhaps liberals, some are socialists, but in foreign policy national interests should dominate, not personal political preferences”.
“Chavez is significant for us because he symbolizes an era, a transitional era, I would say, an age of tectonic shifts from a unipolar towards a polycentric world”, Vladimir Davydov, director of the Latin American Institute of the Academy of Sciences, doctor of Economic Sciences, said. “Moreover, he made a personal contribution to keeping the development in this direction. I think he personified this global process particularly, that is why there is such a great interest in it. That is, he is not a leader of a strictly national scale, he is not a provincial politician, he is a Latin American politician, not to mention that he is a major figure to be recorded in the annals of Venezuelan history, he is a figure of world politics. I think that the paradoxical situation was caused by several factors. First of all, Chavez was to a great extent ahead, I think also regarding his concept. The socialism of the 21st century was greatly accelerated by Hugo. Of course, the search is going on, socially-oriented development models, people do not recognize the enormous social costs that are associated with neo-liberalism, it is obvious. The electorate turns away even in Europe, even in our France. Merkel could lose the elections, it is very likely. Michelle Bachelet in Chile, right after a right-wing president everyone was saying: oh, the leftist revolution has ended in Latin America, Pinera came to power, a popular politician. What can we see now? The ratings of the right-wing politicians have decreased seriously, and one of the leaders of the Socialist Party, Michelle Bachelet is at the peak of his popularity. So in a sense, Chavez was rushing too much, he was ahead, he was too impulsive, he lacked rationality, he also sometimes was not cunning enough. He was, in general, a skilled, resourceful politician, but it seems to me that he lacked something. Of course, we do not perceive Chavez correctly. It seems to us that his escapades regarding foreign policy issues were a thing in itself. Not at all! It was a tool of domestic policy, and all the politicians in any country of the world, in our country or some other country, use the foreign policy factor in solving political problems. Chavez has often used it.
I think the paradox is that Venezuela has been and remained the largest supplier of oil to the U.S. market. The fact that the Americans mostly calmly reacted to Chavez, when one would assume a very fierce response, can be explained by one very important factor. There are variations from 11 to 13. The Americans nevertheless certainly wanted to lower the quota of Venezuelan oil on their market, but, in principle, it remained unchanged, and I must say that the supply of Venezuelan oil was carried out in accordance with all agreements - there have been no disruptions of supplies from Venezuela during the rule of Chavez. But what is going to happen? I think it has to be said that the direction developed by Chavez, has a very strong momentum. It will be difficult to make any sharp shifts in the near future. I think that the political capital, the huge political capital of Chavez, mostly earned with the help of social policy, will bring benefits to his followers, above all, to the vice-president, Maduro, who Chavez announced as his successor. Elections, there are already some polls, the information is appearing, which shows that he has quite good chances. Let's just say that it is impossible to become another Chavez. The great difficulty lies in the fact that he was too distant from his environment. The right person, and the regime is very personal...to ensure continuity is not very easy, because one has to use not only the capital of Chavez but also develop one's own capital, and this presents the biggest challenges. The economic situation in the country, it must be admitted, is difficult. Recently, the national currency has been devalued by 30 % in reality. It has long been delayed, it should have been done much earlier, because the black market was actively operating and was causing the erosion of the Venezuelan economy. There were elections, there was a need for a delay due to political reasons, and in the end this necessary measure was enforced. It all led to a very simple outcome - an inevitable surge in inflation. Just imagine, a 32 % devaluation if I am not mistaken. So there is a huge challenge awaiting his successors. They can win the election, but, well, I would not guarantee that they would be able to keep the wheel, steering the country firmly in their hands in the mid-term and long-term perspectives”.
“Certainly, he was an extraordinary world-class leader, the leader of a country, who has done a lot for the development of Russian-Venezuelan economic relations. But politics is always based on the economy, because the main sphere today is the oil and gas sector”, Dmitry Panyushkin, Director General of the National Committee for Economic Cooperation with Latin America, said. “There is some significant progress and prospects there, as well as cooperation in the military-technical field, but military-technical cooperation is not only about military equipment, it is also about engineering. Certainly, we believe that there is a prospect for further development. For example, we have a member of the KAMAZ committee, which has an assembly production jointly with the Venezuelans, it supplies chassis. This is a big advantage and a prospect for future development, it will not fade away. Especially since transport is a clear thing, everyone can see it, it is comfortable and nicely designed, our task is maintain this position”.
