Crisis in GUAM’s member

By Vestnik Kavkaza

On March 8th members of the GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova) met with the head of the EU office in the UN in New York. Meanwhile, the Moldavian government headed by Vlad Filat was dismissed. The first vice-speaker of the parliament, one of the leaders of the Democratic Party Vladimir Plakhotnyuk, was dismissed as well.

According to Dmitry Chubashenko, Moldavian political analyst, “Moldova has stepped into a period of ambiguity – no government, no parliamentary majority, no ruling coalition. If a government is formed, a new parliamentary majority will appear, and it will work till new elections in late 2014 – early 2015. If a government is not adopted, the president would have to appeal to the Constitutional Court. The Constitutional Court would have to confirm the dissolution of the parliament. After this, in 60-90 days early parliamentary elections have to be held. This is what the law says. Actually the situation may be much more complicated. A government may not be adopted, but early elections wouldn’t be scheduled. Those who are in power today and the judges of the Constitutional Court would find legal reasons for postponing the elections.”

“In general, there is a struggle between two clans – Filat’s and Plakhotnyuk’s clans. The question is: whether they come to early elections or try to find a compromise and both be safe,” Pavel Midrigan, political expert from Chisinau, explains. “At the moment the score is 1:1. Premier Filat achieved the dismissal of the General Prosecutor and the first deputy speaker of the parliament, while Mr. Plakhotnyuk achieved the dissolution of the government. Now the question is what is next. Apparently nobody wants early elections, because the trust level of the alliance among the population is very low. The majority of pre-election promises haven’t been fulfilled. The situation in Moldova is getting worse and worse. There are no positive prospects.

They realize that they have nothing to promise people in the case of early elections. In 2010 they spoke about European integration, justice, legal statehood and the supremacy of the law, but this has faded away. They understand that the Communists can actually come back in this context. The situation is worsening because we have lost sovereignty during these years. We have certain foreign forces which are consulting us. A lot of money has been invested by the EU, and they are indignant that their hopes for success are being ruined. Europe would like to reach a compromise as well.”

“On the one hand, the crisis was predicted. On the other hand, nobody expected that it would break out so soon and would have such heavy consequences for the ruling pro-European, pro-Western coalition in Moldova,” Vasily Kashirin, senior scientist of the European CIS and Baltic countries of RISI, thinks. “Nobody could believe that the European Union would let its favourite child die so fast, collapse irreparably. Nobody could predict this. My colleague from Romania, the well-known expert Dan Dungachiu, a smart man who used to be Mikhai Gimpu’s aide, commented on the current crisis that Russia had scored a goal against Germany. Unfortunately, many European and Russian experts perceive Moldova as a football pitch on which Russia and the EU are playing. I think Europe was clearly defeated, but that doesn’t mean that Russia won. Russia is not interested in political chaos, and political chaos will definitely take place in Moldova. The EU exaggerated the stability of its positions and the positions of its favourite child – the cabinet of Vlad Filat. Now it is trying to fix the cabinet, restore it, and promote Yuri Lyanke as the new prime minister. However, our colleagues from Chisinau have already said that this candidate is unacceptable for the Liberal-Democratic Party. They insist that Filat should remain prime minister, but Filat is unacceptable to Plakhotnyuk and his Democratic Party of Moldova.

The reason for it is that two strong men with predatory instincts, two Vlads – Vlad Filat and Vlad Plakhotnyuk – couldn’t agree with each other. These politicians couldn’t live together in one coalition. Their interests are too different. After a scandalous incident, a tragedy while hunting on December 23, when top judges and prosecution officials organized a hunt ahead of Christmas, and a businessman died, nobody thought that this tragedy would lead to the complete collapse of the coalition.

Moldova’s laws are imperfect. The ambiguity may continue for a long, long time. We remember how long and tormenting the presidential elections were when Nikolai Timofti was elected President. The Communists still believe his election was illegal because the elections took a lot of time. The laws are so unclear that they actually enable the current cabinet to work and the current ministers to fulfil their duties for a long time. The alliance is not interested in early elections. The Democratic Party of Moldova is interested in them least of all. They have lost their reputations. The Liberal Party of Gimpu has the most stable electorate. 10-12% of people always vote for them. This is the only party in the alliance which has a real ideological foundation – the clear, tough ideology of Romanism and Russophobia. At least they don’t betray their ideology. Two other parties have no ideology at all. That is why various bargains, combinations, and blocs are possible between them. Different variations of coalitions and blocs are possible. The main problem is that Russia has no friendly force to work with. Even though the left-wing parties are pro-Russian and pro-Eurasian, they haven’t shown themselves as real pro-Russian activists. Notwithstanding further development of the crisis in Moldova, if Russia doesn’t get someone to work with, its strategic interests in the republic won’t be protected.”