By Vestnik Kavkaza
On June 14th, presidential elections will take place in Iran, but Tehran fears that the USA, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia will try to destabilize the situation in the IRI with the involvement of terrorist groups.
“The personality of the future president will influence the dynamic of development of relations in the Persian Gulf, the Middle East on urgent issues of international politics,” said Rajab Safarov, head of the Modern Iran Studies Center. “The elections bring a hope for changing the situation over Iran. Nobody is interested in further escalation of tension over Iran, which can lead to a conflict.”
“Most probably the so-called “coalition of three” will win the elections. The coalition includes Ali Akbar Velayati who used to be the foreign minister, and an MP, and now is an aide to the Supreme Leader on international affairs. The second person is the current mayor of Tehran Galibaf Galibaf who used to be the commander of IRGC, an important person who is considered by Iranians as a man who can change a lot in the social sphere. Velayati is a theorist, Galibaf is a man of energy, whose knowledge and deeds have always been aimed at certain tasks on improvement people’s life. This politician is a doer.
The third member of the coalition is the former parliamentary speaker Hadad Adel. He is a rather a significant person, but now he has stepped away, but he used to be popular previously. He is a relative of Supreme Leader. I believe the third member of the coalition is called to balance radical positions of the political theory and the political practice. He is a man who knows law, communicates to MPs, regions, spiritual elite representatives.
Muhsin Rezai has stated on his intention to take part in the rivalry. He used to be the commander of IRGC, and now he is the secretary of the Supreme Council of Decision Making. He participated in elections in 2009 from the opposition – those who were disagree with the results of the elections. However, in the end he accepted results of the elections, got a position, and were working in the sphere of the state’s development for four years.
Of course we should remember about former president Ali Akbar Rafsandjani; many people ask him to return. He doesn’t reject the possibility as well. He can agree for this, but he is rather old, while Iran experiences a tendency of youthification of politics.
A lot of people think about Isfandiyar Mashai today. Mashai is a relative of current President Ahmadinejad. Many people think that after the end of Ahmadinejad’s term the force called “Ahmadinejad’s team” should stay in the political system of Iran. There are many problems of this team, and to avoid a confrontation in the society, the team should promote a dignified representative in the Iranian life and politics. A lot of people believe that Ahmadinejad is trying to lobby “his” candidate. When I say Ahmadinejad, I mean the team of the current government of Iran headed by Ahmadinejad. The only prominent candidate from the group is Mashai. He doesn’t refuse from ambitions to be Iranian President. When I was told that Said Jalili is going to participate in the presidential elections, it made me laugh, but then I thought why not? This person has serious ambitions, a tough negotiator. Iranians consider him a man who totally protects interests of Iran, and people respect such a tough position.”
According to the Iranian laws, any citizen has a right to apply for being a candidate to President of Iran. The Interior Ministry organizes elections in Iran. There is a certain commission who eliminates candidates for this or that reason. The main criteria are common sense, age, adequacy, following Islamic values, and the most important is agreement of a person to continue protection of Iranian interests. I believe many candidates will be eliminated on these criteria. As the result, up to 10 candidates will take part in the elections. Probably these elections will be the toughest because bets are too high,” Safarov thinks.
The senior scientist of the Oriental Studies Institute of the RAS, Vladimir Sazhin, defines three categories of candidates to presidency in Iran – liberal reformers, conservative pragmatics, and Islamic radicals. “Each of the directions has subdirections – more radical, less radical… The political spectrum is very wide in Iran. Almost all of them support the Islamic regime which exists now; and of course there are no pro-Western candidates in Iran. They have different views on tactics of political steps in various situations. They have different views on development of the economic process in the country. They have different views on the nuclear problem of Iran. There are some candidates who are ready to understand demands of Iran’s opponents in the nuclear sphere. In this case steps to each other are possible, which is impossible under current President Ahmadinejad,” Sazhin thinks. “Two whales of the Iranian politics – Rafsnjani and Khatami – are still on a sidetrack and are ready to join the competition with agreement of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.”
