David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
In Armenia there is a traditionally tight connection between internal and external politics. This became particularly apparent when the opposition parties refused to participate in the February presidential elections. Now the population connects its hopes for change, not with a specific politician or party, but only with a popular movement. It is impossible to ignore the external factors, because the latest events, including the appearance of the popular movement “Revolution of Greeting” and the general emotional rise are the results of external forces.
It is not only Russia and the US who participate in the game for influence in Armenia, but also the EU, Iran and even China. Up to a certain point the ruling Armenian elite was looking westwards, therefore the republicans, with Serzh Sargsyan at their head, became unsatisfactory for Russia. Moscow started considering a change of power in favor of more pro-Russian forces – the party “Prosperous Armenia”, the Armenian National Congress and even Dashnaktsyutun. As a result, the ruling party had to prove to Moscow that Russian interests will be considered. It is unclear what the price Yerevan had to pay was, but Moscow recognized the current leadership, while also talking to all the other pro-Russian parties that participated in the elections.
However, the pro-Western Armenian elite did not turn pro-Russian. For many years the main goal of the Armenian authorities has been money, and to have it they need the right to rob their own country and people. The key factor for the ruling elite is not the geopolitical weight of the state, not the interests of their country, but only from which center of power they can get that right. If it comes from Moscow, the rulers look there, but judging from the latest events it is given in Washington. According to sociologists, 80% of the Armenian political elite is pro-Western, while 80% of the population is pro-Russian.
This paradoxical situation became possible as a result of the break between the state and society, between the rich and the poor. Russia, that has a military base in Armenia, that maintains first place in investment in the strategic spheres of life, started to yield to the West, which is working very efficiently. Through relatively small financial investments in the non-governmental sector, Western experts skilfully brainwash Armenian politicians and public figures. As a result of this small investment, Western embassies have created a situation in which Russia has stopped being the only alternative in the eyes of Armenian society. According to a member of the Karabakh committee, the main advisor to the first president of Armenia on national security affairs Ashot Manucharyan, the Western politicians do not have that many cards, but they play them brilliantly to weaken Russia, which has a big stick and thus has to be considered. As a result, Russian spheres of influence are gradually shrinking. However, Manucharyan believes that Moscow can abandon the outdated policy of cooperating only with the ruling elites of the CIS and build bridges with the growing popular movements in Armenia.
