Author: Interview by David Stepanyan, Yerevan, exclusively to VK
Board member of the Social-Democratic Party "Hnchakyan", former Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia Vahan Shirkhanyan told VK about the prospects for the foreign policy of Armenia, the Yerevan mayoral elections and the political situation.
- Is the People's Movement "Revolution of Greetings", in your opinion, based on internal dissent with the socio-economic situation, or it is another "color" project from abroad?
- The leader of the "Heritage" party Raffi Hovhannisyan somehow has to make a compromise with the authorities. All his latest moves are inefficient and can only lead to the destabilization of the situation, which will have a negative impact on the people. Politics is a market in which there is always a bargain. If this or that figure has political views that he is going to realize, he will have to compromise. Because of some features of the geopolitical situation of Armenia, many centers of power are pursuing their own interests. In this light, we cannot rule out a direct connection between the latest internal processes in Armenia and these power centers. However, the presence in Armenia of a large mass of people who are dissatisfied with their social position is also more than obvious. These two factors may well be the catalyst and foundation for a destabilization of the internal political situation.
- Can the results of the election of the mayor of Yerevan scheduled for May 5 play the role of a catalyst, especially against the background of serious discontent in society with the outcome of the presidential elections in February?
- Of course there will be troubles; however, they are unlikely to go beyond previous scenarios. A worsening situation in a post-election period is a common phenomenon inherent not only to Armenia. But the new excitement in our society is in any case undesirable, since they bring much more harm to the society itself, the people, than, in fact, to the authorities. As a result of any internal unrest the country's image deteriorates in the international arena, which primarily affects the economy and the people. I do not think that the elections to the Council of Elders will be any different from all the previous elections, even by the fact that one of the pro-government forces will win. Not only incumbent Mayor Taron Margaryan heading the list of the Republican Party, but also Armen Yeritsyan heading the list of "Rule of Law", whom I consider to be a highly-respected and influential politician, has a chance of winning.
Meanwhile, in my opinion, Armenia should abandon the liberal economic system in favor of the development of social democracy. Armenia, going against all the current trends and challenges, stubbornly follows the path of further liberalization of the economy, which cannot lead our weakened economy to positive results. But in the case of a transition to a social-democratic system the regulatory role of the state in various fields will increase, which in the case of Armenia is a necessity.
- What are, in your opinion, the external priorities?
- As a result of the implementation of complementary foreign policy our country has gone through quite a difficult time. As a result of complementarity Armenia has undertaken a lot of obligations to the polar centers of power. Abandoning these commitments and choosing a new path in foreign policy in a single day is impossible. However, the establishment of the Customs Union and the prospects for the emergence of the Eurasian Union, of course, have opened up new possibilities for Armenia in foreign policy. Everything is simple. Armenia's interests can be most clearly reflected in these two structures. Membership of the Customs Union promises specific economic challenges will be addressed, while association with Europe and the EU as a whole are still in the very distant future. Membership of the Customs Union will give us a boundless market, where Armenian goods will feel a lot more comfortable than in the European market. Above all, membership of the Customs Union will open up new possibilities for integration, including with neighboring countries, especially Iran. Joining the Customs and later the Eurasian Union is more profitable than European integration, because the benefits of the first two projects are realistic and achievable.
The military-political and strategic relations with Russia have no alternatives. Since 1990, history has repeatedly shown it. An alliance with Russia is the only guarantee of security for Armenia, and this relationship will develop at least during the next decade. No other structure, primarily NATO, will give us such guarantees, even if Armenia becomes a member of this organization.
The absence of a common border with the countries of the Eurasian Union is estimated to be as an obstacle in the way of Armenia's accession to the Customs Union. But there are no boundaries with European countries, either.
- What about Georgia, through which transit to Armenia is carried out?
- As for Georgia, being a man who was born there, I am upset to see how a geopolitical reality that will soon deprive Georgia of a future is being formed. The implementation of such a scenario would be possible and would take place not even because Tbilisi has quarrelled with Moscow. This will happen as a result of an improperly-constructed domestic policy, which has resulted in the fact that today Georgian land, which is of the most impassable value, is already being sold to Indians and South African Boers. Georgia’s problem is not the unwillingness to take part in integration projects initiated by Russia in the former Soviet Union. We all understand the importance of Georgia for Armenia, given that this country is the only transit area for our country. Therefore, Yerevan is extremely interested in the fact that Georgia comes out of that state of collapse.
