Pyotr Lyukimson , Israel, exclusively to VK
See also " The Syrian collapse: the view from Europe" and " The Syrian collapse: the view from Moscow"
A U.S. attack on Syria seems almost inevitable. The issue lies in its potential scope. Today in Israel no one has any doubt that a week ago in the eastern suburbs of Damascus chemical weapons were used. The question remains only about the exact number of victims of the chemical attack. According to the most "optimistic" estimates, there were about 355 deaths and more than 3,600 injured. According to other reports, the death toll approached 2,000. Generally, due to the scale of the massacre and the fact that most of the victims were women and children, it is impossible for the international community to "pass by" this event. The effect was enhanced by numerous video and photo documentation from the ground.
At the time, Barack Obama called the possible application of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by the regime of Bashar al-Assad a “red line", the crossing of which should not be allowed. Since then , according to the Israeli intelligence services, the "red line" has been crossed by Assad repeatedly. The official position of the Government of Syria, as well as the Russian one, is well known - that it was a provocation by the rebels. But in the West such an option is considered unlikely.
Be that as it may, Damascus has obviously overestimated Obama's unwillingness to intervene in the conflict. Perhaps it would be happy if there were no evidence against the security forces, but the realities are different. In these circumstances, if Obama had even once failed to voice the "chemical red line", it would be difficult to resist the pressure of public opinion.
If the president continued to stand by, he could be finally considered as a chatterbox, whose words cannot be taken seriously. For the American leader such a situation is unacceptable - at least in the light of the fatal consequences of such a scenario on the issue of Iran's nuclear program. Thus, at the moment a U.S. attack on Syria looks inevitable.
At the same time, according to informed sources in Washington and London, the operation will be limited. The U.S. position, according to which it is inadvisable to actively intervene in the Syrian civil war and dramatically speed up the fall of the Assad regime, has remained unchanged. Thus, the attack should be "educational and exemplary". The West wants only to "punish" al-Assad , but in any case not to destroy him.
All the necessary tools for a limited attack were in readiness in the region by the middle of this week. Of course, it is hard to say how the attack will unfold, but it is clear that the main role in the attack will be played by U.S. Arleigh Burke destroyers deployed in the eastern part of the Mediterranean sea. Along with British and American nuclear submarines they are armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles , which will be used.
This missile was first used in 1991 in Iraq. Since then, the designers have not stopped improving it. The Tomahawk still remains an effective means of high-precision air attack, against which a country like Syria has simply no answer. It is still unclear whether there will be only attack from ships or whether aircraft will be involved too; cruise missiles can be used without entering the zone of the Syrian air defense and anti-ship shore facilities. Which attack scenario will the U.S. and its allies choose? Time will tell, but most likely they will strike at facilities related to chemical weapons, their delivery systems, tactical and operational- tactical missile launchers, as well as command centers and government institutions that have a symbolic value .
According to most sources, the attack will be short-lived and will last from a few hours to two or three days. A lot will depend on the response of Syria. If there is no reaction, or it is limited, there will be no reason to believe that the U.S. strike will go beyond "painful educational measures."
There will be quite another case if Damascus decides to act in accordance with the threats that have been repeated in recent days. One of the possible scenarios is a Syrian missile attack on Israel. Israeli experts are of the opinion that the chances of such a development are low. Nevertheless, it is impossible to completely exclude such a scenario. According to Israeli estimates, the chances of a Syrian missile attack will increase only if the Syrian president is in a no-win situation. In the case of U.S. operations of limited scope, Assad will not be backed into a corner, and there will be no direct threat of an immediate collapse of his regime. Thus, a more or less serious provocation against Israel would be pointless for the Syrian president, but it would be disastrous. The large-scale entry of Israel into the fighting will certainly lead to the rapid collapse of the Syrian armed forces and, as a result, of the whole regime, and Assad understands this. At the same time, if Syria first strikes at Tel Aviv, Haifa and other cities, as well as a complex of petrochemical plants in the Haifa Bay area, it could be very painful.
However, a scenario in which on the Syrian or Lebanese border or in the Gaza Strip some provocations will take place and attempts at terrorist attacks against Israeli targets abroad looks pretty likely.
It is important to note that Israel and the U.S. have supported close contacts between them for the last few days. According to some foreign media, some of the evidence on the use of weapons of mass destruction by Syria has been provided to the Western countries by the Israeli intelligence services, recording all the talk in the army headquarters of Assad. According to the same sources, the United States initially warned Israel about its intention to attack Syria, and further promised to inform it ahead of time of the precise date, so that the IDF could prepare.
This training was actually observed in the last few days, with increased readiness of various kinds of military units. First, these are the batteries armed with the "Hetz -2", "Patriot" and "Iron Dome" missile defense complexes.
On August 28 an extraordinary meeting was held of the inner cabinet on security and foreign policy, at which the ministers received all the necessary information on the eve of the American attack. Earlier, Netanyahu warned all "interested" parties that in case of attack on Israel the response of the Jewish state would be very tough.
Externally, Israel continues to live a normal life - except perhaps the queues formed in various cities at outlets for gas masks.
