By Vestnik Kavkaza
The former ambassador of Russia in Saudi Arabia, a member of Russian delegations in forums on international and regional security, including the working group on control over weaponry and regional security within the Middle East peaceful process, and the advisor of the deputy chairman of the Council of the Federation, Andrey Baklanov, told Vestnik Kavkaza about his view on the Middle East settlement.
- As the result of color revolutions the center of gravity of the Middle East region is shifting toward Qatar and Saudi Arabia. What does it mean for Russia?
- First of all, I don’t think that is the case. I think many current views on the Middle East are shallow and wrong. I think that the most important process in the Middle East today is Islamism’s sunset. In Egypt we saw disappointment in wide layers of the population with the role which Islamist organizations began to play. It appeared to be too heavy to them.
The role of religion in the current conditions should be in morally and ethically positive, rather than an involvement into politics, economy, pushing off other forces. That’s what happened in Egypt and the majority of the population didn’t like it. It is an important precedent.
All these countries should seek for a way out of socio-economic deadlocks. From this point of view, I like the example of Nasser (Egyptian president in 1954-1970). He found very interesting decisions for his time, established enterprises which are still a fundament of the industry and energy system of Egypt.
What is the sense in talks about a number of seats in a parliament, if the parliament doesn’t work and MPs don’t know what to do? Some ways out should be found, address to economists, rather than politicians. However, unfortunately, in recent years it disturbs many minds in the Middle East from really important problems.
- If Qatar and Saudi Arabia are not leaders of the region, what country is the leader then?
- I think there is a traditional set of states which have always been leading. Sometimes that can fulfill the role or not. For example, today Egypt is in a bad condition. It began to gain these bad conditions 10 years ago. Every time I have visited Egypt, I have seen the economic situation worsening. But sooner or later Egypt will overcome this.
A special role in the region is played by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Syria and Iraq when the crisis will pass. And for sure Iran will still play a very significant role. But at the moment they have stepped into a period of crisis, worsened by bloodshed incidents and imposing wrong recipes and forced settlements on the countries by foreign forces.
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Baklanov compares Syria with a brick without which the whole Middle East will be destroyed: “There are many regional contacts with Turkey, the Gulf, Israel. But with due respect to the Syrian aspect, today the more serious problem is in what world we want to live in the future, under what system of international relations.”
Baklanov sees three variants of further developments which will be determined by the results of the Syrian crisis.
First. The postwar system is working badly. The UN and the Security Council do not fulfill their function to the full extent. Theoretically we can speak about the fading away of the postwar system in a faster way. People will simply stop paying attention to it. Today there are ideas on passing decisions by the SC by.
Second. We can build other organizations, other integration structures, using potential of the UN. We have already stepped into the course – the SCO, BRICS, G8, G20.
Third. It is the gradual imbalance of the whole system of international relations. The world used to live without international organizations, without attempts to unite countries for development of common rules. We can come back to the chaos, even though it would be far away from civilized behavior.
“We shouldn’t slam the door. We shouldn’t stop the dialogue,” Baklanov thinks. “Our economic situation should be improved, our defense capability should be improved for them to listen to our world. The political diplomatic art is in making steps which will give result.”
