By Vestnik Kavkaza
Russia has presented the US with a plan for transfer of Syrian chemical weapons to international control, a topic for discussion at the Geneva meeting of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry. Yesterday, Leonid Kalashnikov, deputy head of the committee for international relations of the lower chamber of the Russian parliament, proposed at parliamentary talks for Syria to renew shipments of defensive arms to Tehran, the main ally of Damascus in the region.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said yesterday: “Tehran and Moscow have common positions on Syrian issues. We believe that a settlement of the Syrian problem can only be political. Despite US talks about a local war in Syria, facts prove that the war would not be local. The Zionist regime will be attacked by some players, especially some groups and movements that formed in the past 2-3 years. According to our data, the military and the militia forces of Syria will protect their country firmly. We support Mr. Bashar Assad’s efforts to start talks with Syrians. We believe that any political decision through the Geneva-2 Conference or other line should take the interests of the Syrian people into account. As far as the use of chemical weapons by terrorists is concerned, we and Russia have serious proof that it was used by Assad’s opposition. We have presented these documents to the UN.”
Vladimir Yevseyev, Director of the Center for Socio-Political Studies, told Vestnik Kavkaza that Iran would provide excessive aid, should any intervention in Syria happen: “In this case, direct involvement of Israel in the conflict is inevitable. So we can consider it a regional war. From this point of view, it is important for Iran to appraise every step, bearing in mind the possible repercussions. Iran sees the war in Syria as a precedent for war with Iran. But I think, first of all, that there is no total unambiguity, secondly, we should worry about preventing the detonation of the whole region, if there is at least the faintest possibility of such scenario.
- How would Iran help Syria, if it intervenes in the conflict?
- Iran is already helping. But it may also deploy units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards in Syria.
An occupation of Syria is possible. First, it will be attempted by the militants, then the Turkish military and certain countries, including the US. So I cannot rule out a ground operation. In this case, Iran may organize resistance on the territory of occupied Syria. Moreover, Iran has big potential for radio-electronic warfare, technical reconnaissance, some of the activities it is currently engaged in. But this is when Iranian officers may appear to organize a fight and resistance.
But in case of a full-scale war, the most Iran can do is organize resistance on the occupied territory, because Iran is quite well-prepared. Iran has no reason to fight the militants or a coalition on the territory of Syria. It can be done by militia formations, for example, by Iraqi Shiites, the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah, maybe someone else, but direct involvement of the army in clashes with the US on Syrian territory seems pointless to me, because it may be followed by a war with Iran. The US is no doubt provoking Iran to do so. It is important for Iran to stay calm and not to give the US opportunities and reasons to start a war against Iran. This calls for a very thoughtful, balanced approach and it is very important for Iran's leaders (members of parliament and other officials) to stay moderate in their evaluations. Because any evaluations may be interpreted as a cause for aggression against Iran.
- Can Russia help Syria in any way, for example, by monitoring Tomahawk missiles?
- The algorithm is easy to calculate, because they are subsonic. It is measured by the launch distance. The range may total 1900km. The speed is easy to measure.
- Could Syria resist an air attack by the US? Does it have any such means?
- The first assault will be left without a response. Then, the anti-air systems will be knocked out of action. The Syrian government may only reduce losses, try to save certain resources. When it launches the aviation, it may try to shoot down some jets and helicopters. But it would require a mobile anti-missile system. The only thing the Syrian National Army can do is weaken any attacks. The technical and informative superiority is too great, the powers are very different. In this aspect, it is hard to talk about a fair fight. It will be an unpunished slaughter of the Syrian National Army, but it would not bring the US victory. There will be no victors in this war and the Americans will be the losers on the large scale.
It seems Barack Obama wants to have his own Afghanistan. Maybe it is the destiny of every American president to find his own Afghanistan, but I believe that it is not the path for a winner of the Nobel Peace Prize and not the path for a man who was making such pompous declarations about readiness to build new relations with the Muslim world. All the events happening at the moment correspond to the policy of George W. Bush. It appears that the Democrats are no better than the Republicans. Until they meet an equal force, they will bring grief all over the world.
