Syria: what to do with chemical weapons and the opposition

By Vestnik Kavkaza

The draft of the UN SC’s resolution on chemical weapons in Syria was presented on Tuesday at the meeting of five permanent members of the SC. Simultaneously, the Syrian authorities presented to friendly countries evidence that militants from the opposition used the chemical weapon.

The director of the Center of Partnership of Civilizations under the Institute of International Studies of MGIMO, Veniamin Popov, thinks that “the main task of the international community is to destroy weapons of mass destruction in Syria. Thus, a cease-fire is needed, as well as providing security for the inspectors. Now the ball is in the opposition’s court, as the opposition doesn’t want to take part in the political process. What is the opposition? According to Daily Telegraph, there are about 100,000 opposition activists, 10,000 of whom are from al-Qaeda (barbarians, wild people who cut off heads and hearts and eat them in front of a camera) and 30-35,000 religious extremists of all kinds. So half of the opposition are people who can do anything. If they have chemical weapons, if they have used them, where is the guarantee that tomorrow they won’t do it in Europe? I see no such guarantees.”

The director of the Center of Socio-Political Studies, Vladimir Yevseyev, thinks that it is important to count the radical opposition, as it is the most organized: “According to minimum estimates, 6 thousand people are connected with al-Qaeda; according to maximum estimates, there are 10 thousand of them. Can 6 thousand people conduct a military operation? Yes, they can. A lot of arms depots were captured in Syria. Speaking about the opposition’s ammunition, it has all kinds of armaments, including tanks, artillery and missile artillery.”

According to Yevseyev, “the biggest problem is how to control the absence of chemical weapons on the territory which is under the control of the militants… From the point of view of the international community, including Europe, it would be nice if the whole territory of Syria was under the control of the army. In this case we could be confident, because the current authorities are interested in the destruction of chemical weapons… The perfect option for Syria is not to withdraw the armaments in the context of the civil war. The amount is not very big, no more than a thousand tons. It can be stored in mines and embedded in concrete (Russia has the experience after the Semipalatinsk nuclear polygon), and after stabilization of the situation facilities for the destruction of certain kinds of chemical weapons could be set up in Syria. Then the concrete could be uncovered and destruction could be started.”

Yevseyev warns about the withdrawal of chemical weapons: “Roads are not controlled by the army. To withdraw it, ground and air tracking is needed, and militants will attack them to capture the chemical weapons and vehicles to commit terrorist attacks in Europe, for instance. There is a danger connected with shipping the weapons. How would the ships run to Russia, for example? Theoretically they would do it through the Bosphorus. But I don’t think Turkey would permit such a ship to run through the Bosphorus, as the weapons could detonate. Do you understand how many problems would occur? Wouldn’t it be simpler to embed the weapons and wait for a calmer situation?”

According to Veniamin Popov, “The Russian-American agreements open an opportunity for a political resolution of the conflict. If we don’t use this opportunity, if we shift the situation into a military conflict again, especially if international experts are there, it would be a tragedy. We are not interested in a big war. A chemical weapon was used in Syria for the first time in the 21st century. Carla del Ponte spoke about it in March. A new international commission will come again, confirm again, study the issue again, and so on. Let’s wait for final results from the commission. However, before the results, we should realize that the whole world is threatened. We can settle this only together. We stand for a political resolution. Russia invited about 20 delegations of the opposition and is ready to welcome more. There is the opposition inside Syria, which treats the process more or less constructively and is ready to take part in Geneva-2. The question is how to make the opposition go to the conference in Geneva. This task is for our American partners and Western European colleagues.”