Interviewed by Maria Sidelnikova , exclusively to VK
On September 24 U.S. President Barack Obama may meet with his Iranian counterpart, Hassan Rouhani, in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. According to the Los Angeles Times, Obama and Rohani have recently been conducting regular correspondence and expressed a desire to meet. The director of the Research Centre "The Middle East – the Caucasus" of the International Institute of the New States, Stanislav Tarasov, and political analyst Andrey Yepifantsev made encouraging comments about the US-Iranian summit in an interview to VK.
Vestnik Kavkaza: Can Rouhani’s upcoming visit to New York City create some clarity concerning a solution to the Iranian nuclear issue?
Stanislav Tarasov: I think it can seriously affect this issue. The experts expect a lot from this visit. The Americans have made it clear that they will come into contact at the level of the State Department with the Iranian authorities. And the signals that are coming out of Tehran are positive. It is possible that at the forthcoming meeting of the group of six Iran will go in the direction of compromise solutions. Time will tell. I think confrontation s fading away.
Andrey Yepifantsev: After the election of the Iranian President, the Iranian leadership adopted a policy of greater openness to talks with Tehran's main geopolitical rivals - the U.S., Israel and so on. And the process of negotiations will begin. This is a very good moment to start it, because the previous leadership of both Iran and the United States had a certain burden of accumulated problems and an old position, which did not allow either side to hold constructive talks. And new people are always a great chance. The man who became the president of Iran is less radical and less firm in upholding the previous position, and this gives us some chances. It is difficult to say what specific proposals may be promoted by Iran. I hope that there will be some assurance that Iran really would not produce nuclear weapons.
And for Moscow this would be the best case, because Iran having nuclear weapons is a problem for Russia. We would like to have some kind of clear and guaranteed institute of international verification of this situation with Iranian nuclear weapons. And, accordingly, on the part of our Western partners we would like to have some guarantees that they will not invade Iran on the basis of some of these factors.
Vestnik Kavkaza: What is the cause of perceived progress in resolving the Iranian nuclear issue? Is this Rouhani’s personality or maybe the Syrian conflict?
Stanislav Tarasov: There are a lot of factors. Rouhani is still a Westerner. He has studied in Britain, where he is well known. But the Syrian factor also plays a role, because an unfavorable development of the situation in Syria means that Iran could be involved in a local conflict which will be used to make a global strike. Iran is looking for direct contacts with Moscow and seeking a way out , and there is a favorable situation for searching for compromise solutions.
Andrey Yepifantsev: The point is that now, in fact, the West has come to a certain impasse. The Americans have said so often that they will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, that now everything has come to a situation where they can either strike at Iran, because Iran does not accept its terms, or else it will be a situation where the oldest boy in the yard, in this case Washington, will lose the aura of omnipotence and power in the unipolar world. Even within the U.S. it can badly affect Obama, because he is the man who promised a lot but did not do this. And, frankly, he does not want to make a strike. We are already seeing the reluctance of the U.S. to get involved in the Syrian conflict; the U. S. is trying to find some chances not to make a strike at Syria, although it was promised many times. As for Iran, the situation is much more complicated and serious. So I am sure that the West, the U.S., Britain and Israel will negotiate with Iran with great joy if the talks allow them to achieve a situation when in a diplomatic way they will reach the goals that they otherwise would have had to achieve by military means.
Vestnik Kavkaza: Recently, in the framework of the SCO summit, among others, Rouhani met with the leader of China. What issues were discussed?
Stanislav Tarasov: China is a traditional great partner of Iran. Trade and economic relations between them are very close. These are tens of billions of turnover, in my opinion. Rouhani needs personal contacts. It is not excluded that Mr. Rouhani after his visit to the United States will be invited to visit Beijing . A visit of the President of Russia to Iran was also prepared, but it was postponed. But, in any case, there are some positive trends.
